Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent hacks into Nvidia have resulted in leaks that have got the rumour mills churning again for an upgrade to the Switch. </li>
<li>Most details are similar to previous reporting by Bloomberg for the Switch Pro that was expected last year but failed to materialise. </li>
<li>However, the recent leaks point to a bigger GPU upgrade that previously envisioned and that has implications…</li>
</ul>


Recent hacks into Nvidia have resulted in leaks that have got the rumour mills churning again for an upgrade to the Switch. 
Most details are similar to previous reporting by Bloomberg for the Switch Pro that was expected last year but failed to materialise. 
However, the recent leaks point to a bigger GPU upgrade that previously envisioned and that has implications…


Nintendo – Switch Pro Leaks And Implications For Developers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.</li>
<li>In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. </li>
<li>Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.</li>
</ul>


Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.
In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. 
Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.


Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

<ul>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.</li>
<li>NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. </li>
<li>The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.
NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. 
The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global funds are reallocating away from Asia's key sectors, with Asia Communication Services stocks at the heart of the move.</li>
<li>Overweights have been cut, driven by closing out of Tencent, China Mobile, NetEase and Nintendo holdings.</li>
<li>Tencent remains the most widely held stock, but after that there is little consensus or conviction within the sector.</li>
</ul>


Global funds are reallocating away from Asia's key sectors, with Asia Communication Services stocks at the heart of the move.
Overweights have been cut, driven by closing out of Tencent, China Mobile, NetEase and Nintendo holdings.
Tencent remains the most widely held stock, but after that there is little consensus or conviction within the sector.


<ul>
<li>Nintendo posted an impressive top line for 3Q at ¥696bn in revenue vs. consensus at ¥641bn for an 8.6% beat. </li>
<li>OP of ¥253bn beat consensus by 16.9% suggesting that sell side analysts do not understand Nintendo’s new profit structure. </li>
<li>The stock has been resilient since bottoming in early November and we expect strong performance to continue.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo posted an impressive top line for 3Q at ¥696bn in revenue vs. consensus at ¥641bn for an 8.6% beat. 
OP of ¥253bn beat consensus by 16.9% suggesting that sell side analysts do not understand Nintendo’s new profit structure. 
The stock has been resilient since bottoming in early November and we expect strong performance to continue.


Nintendo – Solid Beat Should Confirm Early Nov Bottom

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nintendo (7974 JP)

Nintendo – Switch Pro Leaks And Implications For Developers

Recent hacks into Nvidia have resulted in leaks that have got the rumour mills churning again for an upgrade to the Switch. This opens up...

Mio Kato

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

The Bank of Kyoto (8369) model is clarified so dynamic hedging ratios depend on regional bank PBRs. The model suggests it's at the cheap end of its...

Travis Lundy

Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Nexon's founder Kim Jung-ju has passed away. This raises the question of the disposition of the 47+% stake belonging to his holding company NXC. If...

Travis Lundy

Asia Comm Services: Sentiment Shift

Global funds are reallocating away from Asia's key sectors, with Asia Communication Services stocks at the heart of the move.

Steven Holden

Nintendo – Solid Beat Should Confirm Early Nov Bottom

Nintendo posted an impressive top line for 3Q at ¥696bn in revenue for an 8.6% beat. The stock has been resilient since bottoming in early November...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)