Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive. We were initially treating the PC version as an add-on to “core” Switch sales but even though it is a port we are starting to think volumes could be quite significant.

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive. We were initially treating the PC version as an add-on to “core” Switch sales but even though it is a port we are starting to think volumes could be quite significant.

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise for PC Could Be a Pretty Big Deal

We previously noted that the Metroid series has not been a big seller, at least compared to most of Nintendo’s heavyweight titles, and it hasn’t been as it has yet to break the 3m unit mark for a single title. As such we did not play especially close attention to the latest release but maybe we should have.

We previously noted that the Metroid series has not been a big seller, at least compared to most of Nintendo’s heavyweight titles, and it hasn’t been as it has yet to break the 3m unit mark for a single title. As such we did not play especially close attention to the latest release but maybe we should have.

Nintendo – Can Metroid Dread Hit the 10m Unit Mark

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg has a follow-up</a> on the fate of Nintendo’s 4K Switch claiming that 11 game companies had been supplied 4K development kits for the Switch though a 4K version was not expected until at least late next year. Nintendo has denied these reports, but in rather specific language that suggests to us that the reports may in fact be correct.

Bloomberg has a follow-up on the fate of Nintendo’s 4K Switch claiming that 11 game companies had been supplied 4K development kits for the Switch though a 4K version was not expected until at least late next year. Nintendo has denied these reports, but in rather specific language that suggests to us that the reports may in fact be correct.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was the first under the new rules. It was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-nikkei-225-rebalance-nintendo-murata-keyence-in-nisshinbo-toyo-seikan-skupper-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57008" rel="noopener">2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT</a> about three weeks ago when announced. The ADDITIONS and DELETIONS were announced on 6 September for implementation on 30 September at the close. There was, ex-ante, quite a bit to buy, and not a huge amount to sell from the explicit deletions, though there is a little to sell on a down-weight to the Price Adjustment Factor on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sompo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:632:1" rel="noopener">Sompo Holdings (8630 JP)</a> and there was - on an ex-ante basis - something like US$4.8bn of the other 221 names to sell. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/232/054/original/N225+Sep+2021+Adds+Deletes.png?1632731028" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="232054"></figure></section>That was then. Since then, we have had 13 trading days to build up new pre-positioning or unwind previous pre-positioning. And we are have a run-up to the trade on Thursday at the close. An accompanying insight will briefly discuss the OTHER delta trade which interferes with the smooth flow of this event. More below.

The September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance was the first under the new rules. It was discussed in 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nintendo, Murata, Keyence IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, 'Skupper' OUT about three weeks ago when announced. The ADDITIONS and DELETIONS were announced on 6 September for implementation on 30 September at the close. There was, ex-ante, quite a bit to buy, and not a huge amount to sell from the explicit deletions, though there is a little to sell on a down-weight to the Price Adjustment Factor on Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) and there was - on an ex-ante basis - something like US$4.8bn of the other 221 names to sell. That was then. Since then, we have had 13 trading days to build up new pre-positioning or unwind previous pre-positioning. And we are have a run-up to the trade on Thursday at the close. An accompanying insight will briefly discuss the OTHER delta trade which interferes with the smooth flow of this event. More below.

September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebal With 3 Days Left

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise for PC Could Be a Pretty Big Deal

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive so we are starting to think volumes could be...

Mio Kato

Nintendo – Can Metroid Dread Hit the 10m Unit Mark

The Metroid series has not been a big seller and is yet to break the 3m unit mark for a single title. As such we did not pay especially close...

Mio Kato

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This...

Mio Kato

Nintendo – To 4K or Not to 4K

Nintendo has denied Bloomberg reports that developers have access to 4K development kits, but in a way that suggests to us that the reports may in...

Mio Kato

September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebal With 3 Days Left

The September 2021 Nikkei 225 Rebalance has performed "as expected" for both the ADDs and the DELETEs. It appears that the DELETEs have seen...

Travis Lundy

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