Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nisshinbo is aiming for a radical transformation from old-fashioned textile business to high-tech, aiming for 80% revenue from defense and high-end tech within 3-5 years </li>
<li>New President Yasuji Ishii promises swift decision-making and a comprehensive restructuring plan by February 2026, targeting 10% RoE, up from a 8% deficit at the trough.</li>
<li>Nisshinbo trades at 70% of book value but should easily trade up to 1.5x if it achieves its Roe target.</li>
</ul>


Nisshinbo is aiming for a radical transformation from old-fashioned textile business to high-tech, aiming for 80% revenue from defense and high-end tech within 3-5 years 
New President Yasuji Ishii promises swift decision-making and a comprehensive restructuring plan by February 2026, targeting 10% RoE, up from a 8% deficit at the trough.
Nisshinbo trades at 70% of book value but should easily trade up to 1.5x if it achieves its Roe target.


Can Nisshinbo (3105) Become a Superstock?

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan’s defence renaissance is underway, driven by structural budget growth toward 2%+ of GDP.</li>
<li>Multi-Decade tailwinds in missiles, cyber, and naval systems will reshape the domestic defence industry.</li>
<li>Investors should balance national champions with mid-cap leverage plays to capture both visibility and alpha.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s defence renaissance is underway, driven by structural budget growth toward 2%+ of GDP.
Multi-Decade tailwinds in missiles, cyber, and naval systems will reshape the domestic defence industry.
Investors should balance national champions with mid-cap leverage plays to capture both visibility and alpha.


Japan Defence Supercycle: Multi-Decade Tailwinds, Near-Term Catalysts

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q results in the fall. Their hope is that they get close enough to the up and coming actual results so that they do not have to change anything again before the year closes. We have screened for companies that have significantly changed their full-year guidance.

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q results in the fall. Their hope is that they get close enough to the up and coming actual results so that they do not have to change anything again before the year closes. We have screened for companies that have significantly changed their full-year guidance. 

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<h2>JAPAN</h2>TOYOTA - Noriaki Hirakata, CFA provided an interesting insight in his report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-messages-from-the-chairman-of-toyota" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15738">The Messages from the Chairman of Toyota</a>. Uchiyamada-san, the chairman of Toyota expressed the following interesting views:<ul class=""><li>He doesn’t expect a rapid penetration of EVs in any major market in near future. The main reasons for this are the high costs and limited performance of current battery technology along with very patchy charging infrastructure in major countries, where governments are still reluctant to invest…</li></ul>

JAPANTOYOTA - Noriaki Hirakata, CFA provided an interesting insight in his report, The Messages from the Chairman of Toyota. Uchiyamada-san, the chairman of Toyota expressed the following interesting views:He doesn’t expect a rapid penetration of EVs in any major market in near future. The main reasons for this are the high costs and limited performance of current battery technology along with very patchy charging infrastructure in major countries, where governments are still reluctant to invest…

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma: Toyota Chairman's EV Warnings, Memory Cycle, and Pinkfong

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

On the 4th of February the Nikkei <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Deals/Toyota-near-tie-up-with-Suzuki-on-development-procurement" target="_blank">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/732" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1">Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP)</a> were in discussions regarding an alliance on development and procurement. This was confirmed by the companies today with the statement that the broad terms of the deal have been agreed upon. The move continues a series of tie-ups conducted by Toyota in recent years and could place pressure on other players to seek similar tie-ups. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20528" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20528:1">Mazda Motor Corp (7261 JP)</a> may feel particularly pressured…

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an alliance on development and procurement. This was confirmed by the companies today with the statement that the broad terms of the deal have been agreed upon. The move continues a series of tie-ups conducted by Toyota in recent years and could place pressure on other players to seek similar tie-ups. Mazda Motor Corp (7261 JP) may feel particularly pressured…

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

Japan

Nisshinbo Holdings Inc. manufactures cotton fabrics, synthetic textiles, and chemical products used in apparel and industrial materials.  The Company also makes a variety of paper products, electronics products for wireless communication devices and semiconductors, and specialized machines for industrial manufacturing. In addition, Nisshinbo makes brakes for automobiles.

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Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)

Can Nisshinbo (3105) Become a Superstock?

Nisshinbo aims for a radical transformation to defense and high-tech juggernaut with new president promising swift decision-making and more than...

Michael Allen

Japan Defence Supercycle: Multi-Decade Tailwinds, Near-Term Catalysts

Japan's defense industry is experiencing a renaissance with increased budget allocation, leading to opportunities for investors in national...

Rahul Jain

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q...

Custom Products Group

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma: Toyota Chairman's EV Warnings, Memory Cycle, and Pinkfong

JAPANTOYOTA - Noriaki Hirakata, CFA provided an interesting insight in his report, The Messages from the Chairman of Toyota. Uchiyamada-san, the...

Douglas Kim

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Can Nisshinbo (3105) Become a Superstock?

Nisshinbo aims for a radical transformation to defense and high-tech juggernaut with new president promising swift decision-making and more than...

Michael Allen

Japan Defence Supercycle: Multi-Decade Tailwinds, Near-Term Catalysts

​Japan's defense industry is experiencing a renaissance with increased budget allocation, leading to opportunities for investors in national...

Rahul Jain

2Q Earnings Is the Time for Full-Year Guidance Revisions. See Who Changed Their Numbers the Most....

At the beginning of the fiscal year, Japanese companies issue full-year guidance. Most of them will then revise those number when they announce 2Q...

Custom Products Group

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma: Toyota Chairman's EV Warnings, Memory Cycle, and Pinkfong

JAPANTOYOTA - Noriaki Hirakata, CFA provided an interesting insight in his report, The Messages from the Chairman of Toyota. Uchiyamada-san, the...

Douglas Kim

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an...

Mio Kato

Japan's defense industry is experiencing a renaissance with increased budget allocation, leading to opportunities for investors in national...