IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a>'s gross spread on the Founder’s (Mr Xu Shihui) HK$3.75 per share offer has sharply increased and stood at 5.3% at the last close.</li>
<li>The rising gross spread is due to the recent market selloff (the gross spread of all HKEx merger arbs we track increased this week) and vote risk. </li>
<li>The vote risk is due to no interim results, the high AGM minority participation rate and a modest offer. There is little evidence that these risks will derail the vote. </li>
</ul>



Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)'s gross spread on the Founder’s (Mr Xu Shihui) HK$3.75 per share offer has sharply increased and stood at 5.3% at the last close.
The rising gross spread is due to the recent market selloff (the gross spread of all HKEx merger arbs we track increased this week) and vote risk. 
The vote risk is due to no interim results, the high AGM minority participation rate and a modest offer. There is little evidence that these risks will derail the vote. 


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Widening Spread Ahead of the 23 August Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)'s scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 23 August. The IFA considers the HK$3.75 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. 
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
Sector sentiment has modestly weakened. This looks done. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.6% and 34.8%, respectively.


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a> disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the founder at HK$3.75 per share, a 37.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$2.72 on 20 June).</li>
<li>Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from the founder at HK$3.75 per share, a 37.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$2.72 on 20 June).
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal. 


Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener">Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM)</a> shares are down 18% on the back of FY22 results which revealed a net loss of PHP13 billion mainly due to a large impairment charge.</li>
<li>While softening demand in meat alternatives is a headwind, Monde should benefit from the tailwinds of market share gains (in APAC BFB) and margin improvement (easing cost inflation).</li>
<li>The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21 per share) and will prove attractive to investors with a longer-term investment horizon.</li>
</ul>



Monde Nissin Corp (MONDE PM) shares are down 18% on the back of FY22 results which revealed a net loss of PHP13 billion mainly due to a large impairment charge.
While softening demand in meat alternatives is a headwind, Monde should benefit from the tailwinds of market share gains (in APAC BFB) and margin improvement (easing cost inflation).
The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21 per share) and will prove attractive to investors with a longer-term investment horizon.


Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-hongjiu-fruit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36023:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK)</a>, a multi-brand fruit company in China, is pre-marketing an HKEX IPO to raise US$200-300 million.</li>
<li>The fundamentals are uninspiring as it is delivering profitable growth with a heavy cash burn. The rising but tiny market share suggests a lack of sustainable competitive advantage.</li>
<li>Hongjiu Fruit aims to be the first HKEx-listed fruit distributor. Investors can likely avoid a bitter aftertaste by remaining on the sidelines.</li>
</ul>



Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK), a multi-brand fruit company in China, is pre-marketing an HKEX IPO to raise US$200-300 million.
The fundamentals are uninspiring as it is delivering profitable growth with a heavy cash burn. The rising but tiny market share suggests a lack of sustainable competitive advantage.
Hongjiu Fruit aims to be the first HKEx-listed fruit distributor. Investors can likely avoid a bitter aftertaste by remaining on the sidelines.


Hong Kong

Nissin Foods is a Japanese food company globally recognized for pioneering instant noodles, including its iconic Chicken Ramen and Cup Noodles brands. The company's product portfolio also extends to fresh and frozen noodles, cereals, and other ready-to-eat meals. It was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

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Nissin Foods (1475 HK)

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Widening Spread Ahead of the 23 August Vote

The scheme passed the vote. Minority turnout was high at 76.1%. The scheme was approved by 89.88% of disinterested shareholders. NO votes from...

Arun George

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Scheme Vote on 23 August

Sector sentiment has modestly weakened, helping the YES vote. At the last close and for the 8 September payment, the annualised spread is 34.8%....

Arun George

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Founder’s Privatisation Offer at HK$3.75

The price is final. While the offer price is unattractive compared to peer multiples and historical share prices, this looks like a done deal.

Arun George

Monde Nissin: The Investment Case

The sentiment is weak due to the large impairment charges. The valuation is undemanding (SOTP valuation of PHP10.21) and will prove attractive to...

Arun George

Hongjiu Fruit IPO: A Bitter Fruit

The fundamentals are uninspiring as it is delivering profitable growth with a heavy cash burn. Investors can likely avoid a bitter aftertaste by...

Arun George

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