Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.</li>
<li>Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.</li>
<li>Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.


NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

<ul>
<li>NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.</li>
<li>New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.</li>
<li>Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. </li>
</ul>


NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.
New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.
Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. 


NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Recent Impact: India’s BIS mandate has disrupted steel imports overnight, stranding shipments and pressuring MSMEs.</li>
<li>Pricing: While prices have remained broadly stable so far, rising input tightness and seasonal factors suggest upward pressure is likely ahead.</li>
<li>Global Trends: Around 25–35% of global steel trade is now under protectionist measures, reflecting a broader shift toward regionalization and defensive trade policies.</li>
</ul>


Recent Impact: India’s BIS mandate has disrupted steel imports overnight, stranding shipments and pressuring MSMEs.
Pricing: While prices have remained broadly stable so far, rising input tightness and seasonal factors suggest upward pressure is likely ahead.
Global Trends: Around 25–35% of global steel trade is now under protectionist measures, reflecting a broader shift toward regionalization and defensive trade policies.


Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Belrise Industries / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/belrise-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44122:1" rel="noopener">Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN)</a> raised about US$252m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN) raised about US$252m in its India IPO.
Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Belrise Industries IPO Trading - Robust Insti Demand; Leads Recent Listings

India

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

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Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism

India's BIS mandate disrupts steel imports, pressures MSMEs; global steel trade trends show rise in protectionist measures.

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Belrise Industries IPO Trading - Robust Insti Demand; Leads Recent Listings

Belrise Industries Limited (BIL) raised about US$252m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

​NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

​NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism

​India's BIS mandate disrupts steel imports, pressures MSMEs; global steel trade trends show rise in protectionist measures.

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Belrise Industries IPO Trading - Robust Insti Demand; Leads Recent Listings

Belrise Industries Limited (BIL) raised about US$252m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Akshat Shah

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

India's BIS mandate disrupts steel imports, pressures MSMEs; global steel trade trends show rise in protectionist measures.

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...