Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

BE Semiconductor Industries NV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • BE Semiconductor Industries | order intake remains soft, 1Q25 outlook below market expecttions • KPN | VodafoneZiggo continues to lose broadband clients in 4Q24 • NN Group | better-than-expected OCG thanks to non-life and Insurance Europe • Fagron | continues its track record of marked organic revenue growth and strong free cash flows • SBM Offshore | directional revenue and EBITDA in line; new buyback and upbeat guidance • Vopak | 2025 guidance disappoints; EUR 100m share buyback</li></ul>

In this edition: • BE Semiconductor Industries | order intake remains soft, 1Q25 outlook below market expecttions • KPN | VodafoneZiggo continues to lose broadband clients in 4Q24 • NN Group | better-than-expected OCG thanks to non-life and Insurance Europe • Fagron | continues its track record of marked organic revenue growth and strong free cash flows • SBM Offshore | directional revenue and EBITDA in line; new buyback and upbeat guidance • Vopak | 2025 guidance disappoints; EUR 100m share buyback

BE Semiconductor Industries NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

<ul><li>In today's edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas | ups FY24 guidance • bpostgroup | bpost offers packaging and label-free (L2L) shipping • Triodos Bank | offers a package of measures to its depository receipts (“DR”) holders • Dutch housing market | more homes sold in FY24; average transaction price up 11.5% YoY</li></ul>

In today's edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas | ups FY24 guidance • bpostgroup | bpost offers packaging and label-free (L2L) shipping • Triodos Bank | offers a package of measures to its depository receipts (“DR”) holders • Dutch housing market | more homes sold in FY24; average transaction price up 11.5% YoY

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Netherlands

NN Group N.V. operates as an insurance and investment management company. The Company offers life and non-life, group and individual, motor, transport, fire, liability, travel, and income insurance. NN Group serves customers in the Netherlands.

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NN Group NV (NN NA)

BE Semiconductor Industries NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • BE Semiconductor Industries | order intake remains soft, 1Q25 outlook below market expecttions • KPN | VodafoneZiggo continues...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 10 January (Heineken | NN Group | Havas | bpostgroup | Triodos Bank | Dutch housing market)

In today's edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas...

The IDEA!

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

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