Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN Amro will require some patience.</li>
<li>A closer look at the results and the main takeaways from the earnings call have strengthened our confidence that the bank is taking the right steps in the implementation of its strategy.</li>
<li>Cost savings are well on track with 30% (or ~1,500) of the FTE reductions for 2028 had already been realized by YE25. More than one-third (580 FTE) of this was realized in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>


ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN Amro will require some patience.
A closer look at the results and the main takeaways from the earnings call have strengthened our confidence that the bank is taking the right steps in the implementation of its strategy.
Cost savings are well on track with 30% (or ~1,500) of the FTE reductions for 2028 had already been realized by YE25. More than one-third (580 FTE) of this was realized in 4Q25.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Equity Bottom-Up

Axalta Coating Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora: EUR 5.7bn in pension buy-outs so far this year • Unilever | sells Zwitsal to Royal Sanders • Dutch telcos | DELTA Fiber opens new growth avenue through Open Dutch Fiber • Allegro | post earnings call comment

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>bol. has made its new AI shopping assistant, Shophulp, available to all customers.</li>
<li>The conversational tool sits alongside the search bar in the app and on the website.</li>
<li>Users can describe their needs in natural language. </li>
</ul>


bol. has made its new AI shopping assistant, Shophulp, available to all customers.
The conversational tool sits alongside the search bar in the app and on the website.
Users can describe their needs in natural language. 


AngloGold Ashanti Spon Adr / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.</li>
<li>In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, with the latest being the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency), breaking out from a 2-year base--add exposure.
In terms of MSCI EM specifically, this is a huge risk-on signal for global equities, as EM is pretty much as risky as it gets across the global landscape.
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.


MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

Netherlands

NN Group N.V. operates as an insurance and investment management company. The Company offers life and non-life, group and individual, motor, transport, fire, liability, travel, and income insurance. NN Group serves customers in the Netherlands.

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NN Group NV (NN NA)

What's News in Amsterdam

ABN Amro | post earnings call comment In yesterday’s initial comment on the bank’s 4Q25 and FY25 results, we concluded that an investment in ABN...

The IDEA!

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | UK antitrust authority launches phase 1 investigation re proposed merger • a.s.r. Nederland / NN Group | Athora:...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

bol. has made its new AI shopping assistant, Shophulp, available to all customers. The conversational tool sits alongside the search bar in the app...

The IDEA!

MSCI Emerging Markets Finally Join the Rally; China/HK Improve; Upgrading Taiwan, Downgrading Brazil

MSCI EM Finally Joins the Rally; China/Hong Kong Continue to Improve; Downgrading Brazil to Market Weight; Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight;...

Vermilion Research

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