Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting.  The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans programme will leave Chinese banks with an ever growing maturity mismatch on their balance sheet.  The sale of non-performing loans, that is also gaining momentum, should help keep bank balance sheets more liquid.  Assuming that regulations are changed to alter the reserve requirements and other regulations around banks holding direct equity stakes, then…

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting.  The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans programme will leave Chinese banks with an ever growing maturity mismatch on their balance sheet.  The sale of non-performing loans, that is also gaining momentum, should help keep bank balance sheets more liquid.  Assuming that regulations are changed to alter the reserve requirements and other regulations around banks holding direct equity stakes, then…

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

As the debate about the sustainability about the increase in Chinese credit has grown, a number of points have been raised about why China simply cannot have some type of financial crisis or even needs more debt.  Though I believe a near term financial crisis is an extremely low but rising probability event, it is clear that the optimism about Chinese debt levels or growth ranges from misguided to uninformed.  Let us elucidate some of these.Myth #1: China has high savings rates.  This is…

As the debate about the sustainability about the increase in Chinese credit has grown, a number of points have been raised about why China simply cannot have some type of financial crisis or even needs more debt.  Though I believe a near term financial crisis is an extremely low but rising probability event, it is clear that the optimism about Chinese debt levels or growth ranges from misguided to uninformed.  Let us elucidate some of these.Myth #1: China has high savings rates.  This is…

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows from China have declined.  There is little understanding for the channels via which this is happening.  The primary channel for capital outflows from China was overpayment of goods imports and not official portfolio or direct investment.Since March 1, the noted discrepancy between bank payment for imports and the Customs reported value of imports has…

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows from China have declined.  There is little understanding for the channels via which this is happening.  The primary channel for capital outflows from China was overpayment of goods imports and not official portfolio or direct investment.Since March 1, the noted discrepancy between bank payment for imports and the Customs reported value of imports has…

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a surprising source of bad loans, as in the initial stages these facilities are not even on the balance sheet. They are classified as contingent liabilities, and they are contained off-balance sheet. These include credit commitments, letters of credit, loan guarantees and acceptances. Companies pay a fee for these facilities, and there is generally no…

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a surprising source of bad loans, as in the initial stages these facilities are not even on the balance sheet. They are classified as contingent liabilities, and they are contained off-balance sheet. These include credit commitments, letters of credit, loan guarantees and acceptances. Companies pay a fee for these facilities, and there is generally no…

China

Noah Holdings Ltd. distributes wealth management products in China.  The Company serves high net-worth individuals; enterprises affiliated with high net-worth individuals; and wholesale clients, primarily local commercial banks or branches of national commercial banks which distribute wealth management products to their own clients.

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Noah Holdings (NOAH US)

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In that period,...

Daniel Tabbush

Does China Have Too Much Equity?

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting. The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans...

Mark Artherton

Why China Debt Bulls Are Mostly Wrong

As the debate about the sustainability about the increase in Chinese credit has grown, a number of points have been raised about why China simply...

Christopher Balding

Changing Composition of RMB Outflows

As PBOC FX reserves have stabilized, due primarily to revaluation of EUR and JPY holdings, the story has started to circulate that capital outflows...

Christopher Balding

China: Contingent Liabilities

For the most part we focus on loans and other assets in terms of risk. But contingent liabilities should not be forgotten. These can prove to be a...

Daniel Tabbush

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