China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil.  The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move during the 2008 global financial crisis.  Leaving aside the short term (ir)rationality of such violent swings of the GBP due to a political event with no near or middle term shift in economic and financial policy, the overall impact will be important in determining the direction of the RMB and how the PBOC moves forward.Last week we wrote that the we…

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil.  The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move during the 2008 global financial crisis.  Leaving aside the short term (ir)rationality of such violent swings of the GBP due to a political event with no near or middle term shift in economic and financial policy, the overall impact will be important in determining the direction of the RMB and how the PBOC moves forward.Last week we wrote that the we…

The RMB After Brexit: What Can We Expect Today

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A series of setbacks to China's stock markets has dented confidence and discouraged investors in the first half of 2016. These include the delay in the Shenzen-HK Stock Connect program, delays in market reforms and the MSCI decision, for the third year in a row, not to include China A shares in its global indices.

A series of setbacks to China's stock markets has dented confidence and discouraged investors in the first half of 2016. These include the delay in the Shenzen-HK Stock Connect program, delays in market reforms and the MSCI decision, for the third year in a row, not to include China A shares in its global indices.

Poor First Half for China's Stock Markets

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual growth of loan interest income for China’s banks, and the story is bizarre, to say the least. <div class="content-highlight">
Growth in China banks’ loan interest income on a quarterly basis is now negative at 1Q16.
This is totally new.
</div>It is also at complete odds with rampant loan growth. We must remind that this interest income is for loans only, it is not for wealth management…

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual growth of loan interest income for China’s banks, and the story is bizarre, to say the least. 
Growth in China banks’ loan interest income on a quarterly basis is now negative at 1Q16.
This is totally new.
It is also at complete odds with rampant loan growth. We must remind that this interest income is for loans only, it is not for wealth management…

China - Something Happening Here, Exactly What Isn't Clear

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely reported data.  There are large acknowledged discrepancies between Customs report import, export, and surplus numbers and the bank reported data due to fraudulent payment or invoicing issues.  This then permeates the calculations on balance of payment and other flow issues that provide serious distortions on currency flows.Current account based upon…

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely reported data.  There are large acknowledged discrepancies between Customs report import, export, and surplus numbers and the bank reported data due to fraudulent payment or invoicing issues.  This then permeates the calculations on balance of payment and other flow issues that provide serious distortions on currency flows.Current account based upon…

RMB Outflows Continue As Inflows Collapsing

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

China

Noah Holdings Ltd. distributes wealth management products in China.  The Company serves high net-worth individuals; enterprises affiliated with high net-worth individuals; and wholesale clients, primarily local commercial banks or branches of national commercial banks which distribute wealth management products to their own clients.

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Noah Holdings (NOAH US)

The RMB After Brexit: What Can We Expect Today

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil. The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move...

Christopher Balding

Poor First Half for China's Stock Markets

A series of setbacks to China's stock markets has dented confidence and discouraged investors in the first half of 2016. These include the delay in...

Bixmoor

China - Something Happening Here, Exactly What Isn't Clear

It is hard to envisage how the two opposing data sets can co-exist without something worrisome happening behind the scenes. Here we look at annual...

Daniel Tabbush

RMB Outflows Continue As Inflows Collapsing

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely...

Christopher Balding

The Quiet Collapse in China Bank Margins

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit...

Daniel Tabbush

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