Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Thailand has finally had Mr. Sretha Thavisin as the 30th Prime Minister (PM) of Thailand on 22-August.</li>
<li>The PTP decided to betray its voters to cross  the aisle to join the conservative side.</li>
<li>We believe the potential surge in the Thai stock performance should be the time to de-risk.</li>
</ul>


Thailand has finally had Mr. Sretha Thavisin as the 30th Prime Minister (PM) of Thailand on 22-August.
The PTP decided to betray its voters to cross  the aisle to join the conservative side.
We believe the potential surge in the Thai stock performance should be the time to de-risk.


Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a> 2H21 DPU fell 31.4% YoY; Delivering on turnaround story  </li><li>Oakwood plans to open 20 new properties in 2022; Targets to double portfolio by 2025</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-lai-huat-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9115" rel="noopener">HLH Group (HLHG SP)</a> optimistic on Cambodian market recovery in 2022</li></ul>

Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP) 2H21 DPU fell 31.4% YoY; Delivering on turnaround story  Oakwood plans to open 20 new properties in 2022; Targets to double portfolio by 2025HLH Group (HLHG SP) optimistic on Cambodian market recovery in 2022

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (20Jan22) - SSREIT Delivering on Turnaround Story

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>Jul 21 new private home sales surge 82% MoM; On track for a record year (since 2013)</h3><ul><li>Sales of new private homes surged in Jul21 with developers selling 1,589 units, up 82% MoM from 872 units in Jun21. On a YoY basis, sales were up 47% from 1,080 units in Jul20. Including ECs sold, developers moved 1,744 new homes last month, 81% higher MoM and 53% higher YoY</li><li>Developers launched 1,104 units in Jul21, up 36% MoM and 27% YoY higher. There were no new ECs launched in Jun21. Jul21 take-up rate was robust at 144% (from 107% in Jun21 and 124% in Jul20). Pasir Ris 8 was the top seller last month, moving 418 units, or 86% of its 487 units, with median price of S$1,624psf</li><li>Sales in Jul21 were driven by Pasir Ris 8, followed by Normanton Park, which sold 125 units, Midwood, which sold 91 units and Sengkang Grand Residences, which sold 89 units. Excluding EC, sales volume in Jul21 was highest in OCR followed by RCR and CCR, respectively. The sales volume was 1,012 (64%), 438 (28%) and 139 (9%) units, respectively</li><li>Almost 50% of sales last month were priced below S$1.5m, 29% were between S$1.5-2m, and 21.5% were above S$2m. The average price paid for a unit last month was S$1.7m. In the first seven months of 2021, developers have sold an estimated 8,004 units. Barring new cooling measures, total new private home sales is on course to exceed 11,000 units (excluding ECs) by the end of 2021, locking in the highest annual new sales figure since 2013, which saw 14,948 new sales.</li></ul>

SingaporeJul 21 new private home sales surge 82% MoM; On track for a record year (since 2013)Sales of new private homes surged in Jul21 with developers selling 1,589 units, up 82% MoM from 872 units in Jun21. On a YoY basis, sales were up 47% from 1,080 units in Jul20. Including ECs sold, developers moved 1,744 new homes last month, 81% higher MoM and 53% higher YoYDevelopers launched 1,104 units in Jul21, up 36% MoM and 27% YoY higher. There were no new ECs launched in Jun21. Jul21 take-up rate was robust at 144% (from 107% in Jun21 and 124% in Jul20). Pasir Ris 8 was the top seller last month, moving 418 units, or 86% of its 487 units, with median price of S$1,624psfSales in Jul21 were driven by Pasir Ris 8, followed by Normanton Park, which sold 125 units, Midwood, which sold 91 units and Sengkang Grand Residences, which sold 89 units. Excluding EC, sales volume in Jul21 was highest in OCR followed by RCR and CCR, respectively. The sales volume was 1,012 (64%), 438 (28%) and 139 (9%) units, respectivelyAlmost 50% of sales last month were priced below S$1.5m, 29% were between S$1.5-2m, and 21.5% were above S$2m. The average price paid for a unit last month was S$1.7m. In the first seven months of 2021, developers have sold an estimated 8,004 units. Barring new cooling measures, total new private home sales is on course to exceed 11,000 units (excluding ECs) by the end of 2021, locking in the highest annual new sales figure since 2013, which saw 14,948 new sales.

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

Property Grid is a new product from MCorp Review in 2021 to focus on Thai property. In our debut piece, we start off by visit two property companies, namely Pruksa (the leader in low-end housing) and Noble, a high-end developer touted by several brokers in late 2020.<ul>
<li>
Noble reported 9M'20 net income of Bt1.24bn on the back of Bt7.4bn revenue, roughly double of last year's. The company has also been moving down-market into the affordable Nue segment and hopes to deliver Bt10bn by the end of this year.</li>
<li>Noble is also buying a 20% stake in SWP from SAWAD and simultaneously doing a 3-for-1 split and rights issue. Wow! Guess there's no rest for the wicked!</li>
<li>
Pruksa reported Q3'20 earnings of Bt603m (up 45% QoQ, down 34% YoY) on the back of Bt6.35bn revenues (up 3% QoQ, down 25% YoY). The developer treaded water as it discounted projects to get sales going, though it managed to check its leverage and cost of debts.</li>
</ul>

Property Grid is a new product from MCorp Review in 2021 to focus on Thai property. In our debut piece, we start off by visit two property companies, namely Pruksa (the leader in low-end housing) and Noble, a high-end developer touted by several brokers in late 2020.

Noble reported 9M'20 net income of Bt1.24bn on the back of Bt7.4bn revenue, roughly double of last year's. The company has also been moving down-market into the affordable Nue segment and hopes to deliver Bt10bn by the end of this year.
Noble is also buying a 20% stake in SWP from SAWAD and simultaneously doing a 3-for-1 split and rights issue. Wow! Guess there's no rest for the wicked!

Pruksa reported Q3'20 earnings of Bt603m (up 45% QoQ, down 34% YoY) on the back of Bt6.35bn revenues (up 3% QoQ, down 25% YoY). The developer treaded water as it discounted projects to get sales going, though it managed to check its leverage and cost of debts.


Property Grid Introduces Pruksa and Noble

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt9.2 based on 7.5xPE’21E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector.<ul>
<li>ORI has 3Q20 presales of Bt7.5bn (+14%QoQ), better than market expectation. We foresee presales momentum to speed up in 4Q20 through aggressive new projects launch in 4Q20.</li>
<li>We expect 3Q20 earnings to stay flat YoY as there is no transfer of high value projects. However, we expect earnings to grow strongly both YoY and QoQ in 4Q20 driven by (1) revenue recognition from secured backlog over Bt7bn and (2) aggressive launch of new four low-rise projects worth Bt4.9bn.</li>
</ul>We still like this stock on the backs of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt20bn to back 2021 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 4%-6% in 2020E-21E.

We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt9.2 based on 7.5xPE’21E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector.
ORI has 3Q20 presales of Bt7.5bn (+14%QoQ), better than market expectation. We foresee presales momentum to speed up in 4Q20 through aggressive new projects launch in 4Q20.
We expect 3Q20 earnings to stay flat YoY as there is no transfer of high value projects. However, we expect earnings to grow strongly both YoY and QoQ in 4Q20 driven by (1) revenue recognition from secured backlog over Bt7bn and (2) aggressive launch of new four low-rise projects worth Bt4.9bn.
We still like this stock on the backs of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt20bn to back 2021 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 4%-6% in 2020E-21E.

ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20

Thailand

Noble Development Public Company Limited develops property ranging from single detached houses to low-rise and high-rise condominiums.  The Company also provides housing construction and project management services.

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Noble Development (NOBLE TB)

Thailand : The Empire Strikes Back

Thai politics entered an uncharted territory where many voters view the current coalition as a betrayal of their trust and we believe the surge in...

Bondcritic

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (20Jan22) - SSREIT Delivering on Turnaround Story

SSREIT delivering on turnaround story; Oakwood targets double portfolio by 2025; HLHG bullish on Cambodia; MEG buys 2.2ha MJC property for...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (17Aug21)

SG new home sales on track for a record year; OHL SG resi >90% sold; FLI supported by resi recovery; FILRT focuses on BPO tenants; NOBLE shifts...

SCCM Asia Research

Property Grid Introduces Pruksa and Noble

Property Grid is a new product from MCorp Review in 2021 to focus on Thai property. We focus on Noble and Pruksa, Thailand's leader in low-end...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20

3Q20 ORI presales better than market expectation. We foresee presales momentum to speed up in 4Q20 through aggressive new projects launch in 4Q20.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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