IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)</a>, China's largest purified drinking water company, has received HK listing approval for a US$1 billion IPO.    </li>
<li>CR Beverage has a product portfolio of 13 brands, including C’estbon, Zhi Ben Qing Run, Mi Shui Series, Holiday Series and Zuo Wei Cha Shi, comprising 56 SKUs.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a large TAM, a core business in good health, beverages providing the second growth leg, profitability, and strong cash conversion.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China's largest purified drinking water company, has received HK listing approval for a US$1 billion IPO.    
CR Beverage has a product portfolio of 13 brands, including C’estbon, Zhi Ben Qing Run, Mi Shui Series, Holiday Series and Zuo Wei Cha Shi, comprising 56 SKUs.
The bull case rests on a large TAM, a core business in good health, beverages providing the second growth leg, profitability, and strong cash conversion.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage</a> is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we talked about the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will look at valuations.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
In our earlier notes, we talked about the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will look at valuations.


China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)</a>, China's largest purified drinking water company, has received HK listing approval for a US$1 billion IPO.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>,</strong></em> we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on core business' pricing pressure, a slow pace of revenue diversification, a sizeable pre-IPO dividend, and margin and FCF generation below its key peer. </li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China's largest purified drinking water company, has received HK listing approval for a US$1 billion IPO.
In CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on core business' pricing pressure, a slow pace of revenue diversification, a sizeable pre-IPO dividend, and margin and FCF generation below its key peer. 


Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>'s valuation has come down to a much more reasonable 20x forward PE with expected net profit CAGR of 15% for the next 3 years.</li>
<li>The derating is largely due to the negative media portrayal of the company's Nongfu brand since February 2024, resulting in a -18% decline in its water business in 1H24. </li>
<li>Unsweetend tea business on the other hand has continued to shine, growing 59% yoy in sales in 1H24, while operating profit of the segment surged 63% yoy. </li>
</ul>



Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)'s valuation has come down to a much more reasonable 20x forward PE with expected net profit CAGR of 15% for the next 3 years.
The derating is largely due to the negative media portrayal of the company's Nongfu brand since February 2024, resulting in a -18% decline in its water business in 1H24. 
Unsweetend tea business on the other hand has continued to shine, growing 59% yoy in sales in 1H24, while operating profit of the segment surged 63% yoy. 


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK):  Trading At Below 20x Forward PE With 15% NP 3-Year CAGR

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.</li>
<li>This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. </li>
<li>SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> saw net buying after salutary earnings.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.
This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. 
SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) saw net buying after salutary earnings.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

China

Nongfu Spring Co. Ltd. supplies soft drinks. The Company develops, produces, and sells bottled mineral water, fruit juice, sports drinks, and tea drinks. Nongfu Spring also offers barreled mineral water door-to-door services.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)

CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case

CR Beverage, which will begin pre-marketing its IPO to raise up to US$1 billion, has filed its PHIP. CR Beverage aims to complete the deal before...

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China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

China Resources Beverage has now filed its PHIP and will begin pre-marketing soon. We will have a look at its latest filing and revise our...

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CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on core business' pricing pressure, a slow pace of revenue diversification, a sizeable pre-IPO dividend, and margin and FCF...

Arun George