Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China markets sold off last week, post news <span style='font: small/normal Arial, "BB.Proportional"; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important; white-space: pre-wrap; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;'>China’s securities regulator plans to start a new round of checks on the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. <span style='font: small/normal Arial, "BB.Proportional"; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important; white-space: pre-wrap; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;'>Despite the crackdown on 3 brokers earlier in the year, the outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has climbed to a new record. <span style='font: small/normal Arial, "BB.Proportional"; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; float: none; display: inline !important; white-space: pre-wrap; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;'>We are concerned that further crackdowns on margin trading on the A-share will be required near term, in particular on umbrella trusts.

China markets sold off last week, post news China’s securities regulator plans to start a new round of checks on the margin-lending businesses of brokerages. Despite the crackdown on 3 brokers earlier in the year, the outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has climbed to a new record. We are concerned that further crackdowns on margin trading on the A-share will be required near term, in particular on umbrella trusts.  

CHINA MARKET: Growing risks of regulatory intervention on leverage 

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on offshore bonds) and on Jan 12 got a waiver on a HK$400 million loan from HSBC.&nbsp; The notes dropped 40 percent last month as some of Kaisa’s Shenzhen projects were blocked and executives including founder Kwok Ying Shing quit. They continued to fall in January, reaching 29.9 cents on the dollar on Jan. 7. Its $800 million of 8.875 percent 2018 bonds also plunged.

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on offshore bonds) and on Jan 12 got a waiver on a HK$400 million loan from HSBC.&nbsp; The notes dropped 40 percent last month as some of Kaisa’s Shenzhen projects were blocked and executives including founder Kwok Ying Shing quit. They continued to fall in January, reaching 29.9 cents on the dollar on Jan. 7. Its $800 million of 8.875 percent 2018 bonds also plunged.

China Property / Debt - when Kaisa broke our Trust

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:<ol><li>What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications </li><li>How large margin trading in China is </li><li>Does this mean the government wants the stock market down </li><li>Our view on A-share market going forward </li></ol>

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications How large margin trading in China is Does this mean the government wants the stock market down Our view on A-share market going forward 

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northeast-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6022:1" rel="noopener">Northeast Securities (000686 CH)</a> will be added to the index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harbin-hatou-investment-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13056:1" rel="noopener">Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the CSI All Share Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage Index were announced after market close on 30 May and will be implemented at the close on 13 June.

Northeast Securities (000686 CH) will be added to the index while Harbin Hatou Investment Co, Ltd. (600864 CH) will be deleted.
There is over 2.5x ADV to trade in both stocks and much smaller impact of funding/capping flows on the other index constituents.


CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou

Guotai Haitong Securities / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:166:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (A) (600837 CH)</a> shares will stop trading after 5 February following the merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be small buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> at the close on 5 February and there should be more buying in the A-shares and H-shares in March.</li>
<li>There will also be a stock added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> to bring the number of index constituents back to 300.</li>
</ul>



Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK) and Haitong Securities (A) (600837 CH) shares will stop trading after 5 February following the merger with Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK). 
There will be small buying in Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) at the close on 5 February and there should be more buying in the A-shares and H-shares in March.
There will also be a stock added to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) to bring the number of index constituents back to 300.


Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

China

Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, asset management, investment consulting, and other financial services.

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Northeast Securities (000686 CH)

CHINA MARKET: Growing risks of regulatory intervention on leverage

China markets sold off last week, post news China’s securities regulator plans to start a new round of checks on the margin-lending businesses of...

David Millhouse

China Property / Debt - when Kaisa broke our Trust

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on...

David Millhouse

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative...

David Millhouse

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

Haitong Sec stops trading after 5 Feb. There will be passive flows for Guotai Junan in Feb and index inclusions in March. There will be ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CHINA MARKET: Growing risks of regulatory intervention on leverage

China markets sold off last week, post news China’s securities regulator plans to start a new round of checks on the margin-lending businesses of...

David Millhouse

China Property / Debt - when Kaisa broke our Trust

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on...

David Millhouse

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative...

David Millhouse

CSI All Share IB & Brokerage Index Rebalance: Northeast Replaces Harbin Hatou

Northeast Securities will be added and Harbin Hatou will be deleted. Both stocks have 2.6x ADV to trade. There could be further upside till...

Brian Freitas

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

Haitong Sec stops trading after 5 Feb. There will be passive flows for Guotai Junan in Feb and index inclusions in March. There will be ad hoc...

Brian Freitas