Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 24th March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road (GOR AU)</a> <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250324/pdf/06gyn9td9070tr.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> an unsolicited offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI SJ)</a> of $2.27/share cash plus GOR's effective interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).</li>
<li>Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR's effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Over the past three weeks, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.</li>
<li>Several factors are driving the rally: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/de-grey-mining-northern-star-resources-the-passive-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent passive flow activity</a>, as highlighted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.</li>
<li>
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.</li>
</ul>


Over the past three weeks, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.

Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.


ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers

<ul>
<li>For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s potential Offer.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.</li>
<li>Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Australia

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

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Northern Star Resources (NST AU)

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields

This is a clean deal. The implementation of De Grey Mining's deal, is today, the 5th May. Trading ~6.2%/14.4% gross/annualised assuming mid-Oct...

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...

Nico Rosti

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Collectively, there could be US$416mn one-way flow for the ASX index family in June 2025. Most of the expected index changes could have multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields

This is a clean deal. The implementation of De Grey Mining's deal, is today, the 5th May. Trading ~6.2%/14.4% gross/annualised assuming mid-Oct...

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

​The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...

Nico Rosti

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

Collectively, there could be US$416mn one-way flow for the ASX index family in June 2025. Most of the expected index changes could have multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...