Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting</li>
<li>Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March</li>
<li>TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home</li>
</ul>


Latest Performance: Taiwan AI Names Keep Flying; ASE &amp; Mediatek Lose Steam After Reporting
Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb &amp; March
TSMC and Samsung Will Keep Their Most Advanced Chipmaking at Home


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek reported over 20% YoY growth for 4Q23 and slightly beat expectations but the latest guidance implies growth to reverse to a sales contraction in the latter part of 1Q24E.</li>
<li>Gross and operating margins are guided to contract; nevertheless, inventory dropped to one of the lowest levels since COVID and is expected to remain healthy.</li>
<li>Novatek's latest results appear to signal that while inventory levels are healthy, the demand growth rebound for display drivers that started in June 2023E could lose steam in 1Q24E.</li>
</ul>


Novatek reported over 20% YoY growth for 4Q23 and slightly beat expectations but the latest guidance implies growth to reverse to a sales contraction in the latter part of 1Q24E.
Gross and operating margins are guided to contract; nevertheless, inventory dropped to one of the lowest levels since COVID and is expected to remain healthy.
Novatek's latest results appear to signal that while inventory levels are healthy, the demand growth rebound for display drivers that started in June 2023E could lose steam in 1Q24E.


Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.</li>
<li>1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.</li>
<li>It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.</li>
</ul>


4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.
1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.
It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.


Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD66.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron, Realtek Semi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD66.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron, Realtek Semi.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

Novatek's strong growth in 4Q23 may be short-lived as sales are expected to contract YoY in February and March, despite healthy inventory. The...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Ahead; Display Driver Growth Reversal; AI Names Keep Flying

​Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

​Novatek's strong growth in 4Q23 may be short-lived as sales are expected to contract YoY in February and March, despite healthy inventory. The...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

​The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Unimicron Tech, Global Unichip, Acer, Inventec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan AI names soar, ASE and Mediatek stumble; world's largest display driver maker predicts growth decline; TSMC and Samsung prioritize domestic...

Novatek's strong growth in 4Q23 may be short-lived as sales are expected to contract YoY in February and March, despite healthy inventory. The...

The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...