Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.</li>
<li>100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.</li>
<li>2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.


Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,172.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,885mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components, Hon Hai Precision.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,172.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,885mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components, Hon Hai Precision.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components

<ul>
<li>US-China trade war has led to tariff uncertainties. China's subsidy program has stimulated pre-purchasing by customers in 1Q25, resulting in increased demand for televisions, tablets, phones, and IT products. </li>
<li>All three major product lines have shown seasonal growth. which LDDI has shown the largest growth, SoC follows closely, and SMDDI has lower growth.</li>
<li>DeepSeek will accelerate the implementation and popularization of AI applications, benefiting the company.</li>
</ul>


US-China trade war has led to tariff uncertainties. China's subsidy program has stimulated pre-purchasing by customers in 1Q25, resulting in increased demand for televisions, tablets, phones, and IT products. 
All three major product lines have shown seasonal growth. which LDDI has shown the largest growth, SoC follows closely, and SMDDI has lower growth.
DeepSeek will accelerate the implementation and popularization of AI applications, benefiting the company.


Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.

<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  </li>
<li>Factors such as increased demand related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  
Factors such as increased demand related to Apple (AAPL US)  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.
US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.


Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

<ul>
<li>Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) 1Q25 demand has surged abruptly, with a likely 5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.  </li>
<li>China's substantial demand is capable of supporting a Fabless leader like Novatek.  </li>
<li>The unexpected demand surge in 1Q25 has greatly benefited Novatek .  </li>
</ul>


Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) 1Q25 demand has surged abruptly, with a likely 5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.  
China's substantial demand is capable of supporting a Fabless leader like Novatek.  
The unexpected demand surge in 1Q25 has greatly benefited Novatek .  


Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.

US-China trade war sparks tariff uncertainties, leading to increased demand for tech products in 1Q25. LDDI sees largest growth, SoC follows,...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

​2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 18th): TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Alchip Technologies, UMC, Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Novatek (3034.TT): The Outlook 1Q25 Is Showing Surprising Upside Due to the China Subsidy Program.

​US-China trade war sparks tariff uncertainties, leading to increased demand for tech products in 1Q25. LDDI sees largest growth, SoC follows,...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

​1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.

​Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...

Patrick Liao

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

US-China trade war sparks tariff uncertainties, leading to increased demand for tech products in 1Q25. LDDI sees largest growth, SoC follows,...

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) experiences a sudden surge in demand in 1Q25, likely leading to a 5% increase in shipments, supported by...