Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> underperformed and fell ~32% YTD. Investors continued to cut exposure to stocks of COVID vaccine makers, including BioNTech, Novavax, CureVac, among others.</li>
<li>In August 2021, Moderna announced the first share buyback plan. The company’s Board of Directors has authorized share repurchase for up to $1 billion with an expiry date in 2023. </li>
<li>We estimate Moderna may end 2021 with a total of ~$18.5 billion in cash, cash eq., investments and expect the company may boost share buyback in the future.</li>
</ul>


Shares of Moderna Inc (MRNA US) underperformed and fell ~32% YTD. Investors continued to cut exposure to stocks of COVID vaccine makers, including BioNTech, Novavax, CureVac, among others.
In August 2021, Moderna announced the first share buyback plan. The company’s Board of Directors has authorized share repurchase for up to $1 billion with an expiry date in 2023. 
We estimate Moderna may end 2021 with a total of ~$18.5 billion in cash, cash eq., investments and expect the company may boost share buyback in the future.


Is It Time For Moderna To Boost Share Buyback And Start Paying Dividends?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A new COVID variant JN.1 is spreading fast. WHO has classified JN.1 as “variant of interest” due to its “rapidly increasing spread.” Thus far, JN.1 has not caused severe infection.</li>
<li>Symptoms of JN.1 may not be as mild as Omicron variants. If JN.1 becomes deadlier and more infectious, diagnostics and vaccine players are going to be benefitted primarily.</li>
<li>In this insight we have discussed two Asian vaccine companies and one diagnostic company, which should be kept in the watchlist.</li>
</ul>


A new COVID variant JN.1 is spreading fast. WHO has classified JN.1 as “variant of interest” due to its “rapidly increasing spread.” Thus far, JN.1 has not caused severe infection.
Symptoms of JN.1 may not be as mild as Omicron variants. If JN.1 becomes deadlier and more infectious, diagnostics and vaccine players are going to be benefitted primarily.
In this insight we have discussed two Asian vaccine companies and one diagnostic company, which should be kept in the watchlist.


New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

<ul>
<li>In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW231.8 billion, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement and resumption of flu vaccine production.</li>
<li>Despite significantly improved Q3 result, SK Bioscience is expected to end 2023 on a weak note, due to the absence of contract manufacturing revenue from Novavax.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience has applied for EUA for the updated Novavax COVID-19 vaccine in Korea. Once approved, the company targets to distribute the vaccine during 2023–2024 winter seasons in Korea.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW231.8 billion, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement and resumption of flu vaccine production.
Despite significantly improved Q3 result, SK Bioscience is expected to end 2023 on a weak note, due to the absence of contract manufacturing revenue from Novavax.
SK Bioscience has applied for EUA for the updated Novavax COVID-19 vaccine in Korea. Once approved, the company targets to distribute the vaccine during 2023–2024 winter seasons in Korea.


SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Significantly Improved 3Q Result Benefitted From One-Time Payment

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. </li>
<li>Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor</li>
</ul>


This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor


Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices</li>
<li>The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   </li>
<li>We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices
The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   
We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.


A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

United States

Novavax, Inc. is a clinical stage biotechnology company. The Company creates novel vaccines to address a broad range of infectious diseases worldwide using proprietary virus-like particle (VLP) technology.

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Novavax (NVAX US)

New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

A new COVID variant, JN.1, is spreading rapidly and has been classified as a "variant of interest" by WHO. If it becomes deadlier, vaccine and...

Tina Banerjee

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Significantly Improved 3Q Result Benefitted From One-Time Payment

In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW232B, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement, resumption of...

Tina Banerjee

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor

This model uncovers companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag: Novavax, Micron, Generac, & FormFactor

Eric Fernandez, CFA

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

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Is It Time For Moderna To Boost Share Buyback And Start Paying Dividends?

Our analysis suggests that Moderna may boost share buyback and announce dividend payments in 2022 as cash pile will exceed $20 billion

Andrei Zakharov

New COVID Variant Is Emerging; Testing and Vaccine Euphoria May Be Back; Keep Your Watchlist Ready

​A new COVID variant, JN.1, is spreading rapidly and has been classified as a "variant of interest" by WHO. If it becomes deadlier, vaccine and...

Tina Banerjee

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Significantly Improved 3Q Result Benefitted From One-Time Payment

In 3Q23, revenue jumped 2.5x YoY and 12.1x QoQ to KRW232B, mainly due to the inflow related to Novavax vaccine contract settlement, resumption of...

Tina Banerjee

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Novavax, Micron, Generac, FormFactor

This model uncovers companies facing recent declines in estimates. This week we flag: Novavax, Micron, Generac, & FormFactor

Eric Fernandez, CFA

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

A new COVID variant, JN.1, is spreading rapidly and has been classified as a "variant of interest" by WHO. If it becomes deadlier, vaccine and...