Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The six-month reference period for NIFTY September 2022 Rebalance ends tomorrow.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names that could become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices in the September 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>In addition, I have discussed some trading opportunities with interesting potential index flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The six-month reference period for NIFTY September 2022 Rebalance ends tomorrow.
In this insight, we take a look at the names that could become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices in the September 2022 Rebalance.
In addition, I have discussed some trading opportunities with interesting potential index flow dynamics.


NIFTY Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Adani Total Gas Could Be a Positive Surprise

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><ul><li>NTPC: Generation is expected to report a strong growth of 19.8% YoY to 79.8bus, led by strong demand recovery during peak summer and low YoY base.</li><li>Powergrid: Capitalisation is expected to be at INR25bn (-56% YoY on a high base), while Capex is expected to be INR18.5bn (+67% YoY) in Q1FY23.</li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Tata Power: Revenue is expected to grow by 21.6% YoY to INR123bn, led by improved generation at the Mundra plant, higher power demand across its distribution circles and executions across its solar EPC segment.</span></li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NTPC: Generation is expected to report a strong growth of 19.8% YoY to 79.8bus, led by strong demand recovery during peak summer and low YoY base.Powergrid: Capitalisation is expected to be at INR25bn (-56% YoY on a high base), while Capex is expected to be INR18.5bn (+67% YoY) in Q1FY23.Tata Power: Revenue is expected to grow by 21.6% YoY to INR123bn, led by improved generation at the Mundra plant, higher power demand across its distribution circles and executions across its solar EPC segment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power - Better Realisation and Low YoY Base to Boost PAT

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Life Insurance  of India / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and there will be no replacement in the index.</li>
<li>The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will be added to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) and Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 

Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) will be deleted from the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and there will be no replacement in the index.
The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN).


NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

<div><div><div><ul><li>Hybrid structures to gain more traction: We expect India will add ~342GW of RES capacity over FY22-FY30, led by solar +280GW which represents a capex opportunity of INR11.2 trillion (debt funding of INR9.0trillion).</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Duty imposition and incentives to amplify domestic solar equipment industry: Duty imposition on cells/modules and other supportive schemes will provide the much- needed price parity for domestic manufacturers, to compete with Chinese players.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Green hydrogen—huge potential ahead: We believe that green hydrogen’s early adoption will take place across the fertilizer, refining, ammonia, marine, and steel industries.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Hybrid structures to gain more traction: We expect India will add ~342GW of RES capacity over FY22-FY30, led by solar +280GW which represents a capex opportunity of INR11.2 trillion (debt funding of INR9.0trillion).Duty imposition and incentives to amplify domestic solar equipment industry: Duty imposition on cells/modules and other supportive schemes will provide the much- needed price parity for domestic manufacturers, to compete with Chinese players.Green hydrogen—huge potential ahead: We believe that green hydrogen’s early adoption will take place across the fertilizer, refining, ammonia, marine, and steel industries.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power - Shifting Energy Landscape: Grey to Green Gains Pace

<div><div><div><ul><li>NTPC: Generation/sales increased 3.0%/2.4%YoYto79.9/73.9bnunitsinQ4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 22,200/share.</li></ul></div><div><div><div><ul><li>V-GuardIndustries: V-Guard delivered a beat on revenue, with 24 % YoY. growth (12% three-year CAGR), while EBITDA came in line.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NTPC: Generation/sales increased 3.0%/2.4%YoYto79.9/73.9bnunitsinQ4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand.Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 22,200/share.V-GuardIndustries: V-Guard delivered a beat on revenue, with 24 % YoY. growth (12% three-year CAGR), while EBITDA came in line.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, Shree Cement, V-Guard Industries, Sobha

India

NTPC Ltd. owns and operates power generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards throughout India.  The Company is a public sector undertaking of the Government of India and it also undertakes turnkey consulting projects to set up power plants.

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NTPC Ltd (NTPC IN)

NIFTY Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Adani Total Gas Could Be a Positive Surprise

I expect at least one change for NIFTY 50 and I expect 5 and 25 ADDs/DELs for NIFTY 100 and NIFTY 500 respectively. Adani Total Gas (ATGL IN) could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Power - Better Realisation and Low YoY Base to Boost PAT

NTPC: Generation is expected to report a strong growth of 19.8% YoY to 79.8bus, led by strong demand recovery during peak summer and low YoY base.

HDFC Securities

NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

LIC and Tata Power will be added to the NIFTY100 Index at the close on 5 August. NMDC is being deleted from the NIFTY100 & CPSE indices. There is a...

Brian Freitas

Power - Shifting Energy Landscape: Grey to Green Gains Pace

Renewables are poised to play a huge role in India’s energy sector, with capacity increasing fourfold by 2030, aided by stringent Renewable Power...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, Shree Cement, V-Guard Industries, Sobha

NTPC:Generation/salesincreased3.0%/2.4%YoYto79.9/73.9bnunitsinQ4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand. Coal PAF improved marginally in Q4...

HDFC Securities

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