Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.</li>
<li>TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.</li>
</ul>


Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.
TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.
Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. </li>
<li>TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.</li>
<li>UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.</li>
</ul>


AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. 
TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.
UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>For 2nm technology, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> should start <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  </li>
<li>TSMC's competitors, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.</li>
<li>To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.</li>
</ul>


For 2nm technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) should start Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  
TSMC's competitors, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.
To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Transition from the Internet era of servers to the AI era of backend</li><li>Software advancements are outpacing silicon capabilities</li><li>Question raised about who will benefit from advances in AI technology, particularly in terms of hardware market competitiveness</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Transition from the Internet era of servers to the AI era of backendSoftware advancements are outpacing silicon capabilitiesQuestion raised about who will benefit from advances in AI technology, particularly in terms of hardware market competitivenessThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 88: AI Accellerators, Startup graveyard? With Special Guest Austin Lyons

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Q3 revenue is expected to reach $22.4-23.2 billion, reflecting strong demand for TSMC's 3nm and AI-driven technologies. This marks a significant 14.4% increase from Q2's $20.82 billion, despite global headwinds.</li>
<li>Operating profit margins are forecasted to be between 42.5% and 44.5%, highlighting TSMC’s efforts to maintain profitability. However, pressures from rising operational costs and competitive advancements remain a challenge.</li>
<li>EPS is projected at $1.76, up 40% YoY, driven by robust AI chip demand. Despite this, TSMC faces slowing consumer electronics demand, particularly in smartphones, which could affect future growth.</li>
</ul>


Q3 revenue is expected to reach $22.4-23.2 billion, reflecting strong demand for TSMC's 3nm and AI-driven technologies. This marks a significant 14.4% increase from Q2's $20.82 billion, despite global headwinds.
Operating profit margins are forecasted to be between 42.5% and 44.5%, highlighting TSMC’s efforts to maintain profitability. However, pressures from rising operational costs and competitive advancements remain a challenge.
EPS is projected at $1.76, up 40% YoY, driven by robust AI chip demand. Despite this, TSMC faces slowing consumer electronics demand, particularly in smartphones, which could affect future growth.


TSMC's Q3 Earnings Preview: Investors to Eye AI Demand Boost, Margins in Focus

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

Episode 88: AI Accellerators, Startup graveyard? With Special Guest Austin Lyons

The transition to the AI era of backend technology is being driven by software advancements outpacing hardware advancements in the silicon...

The Circuit

TSMC's Q3 Earnings Preview: Investors to Eye AI Demand Boost, Margins in Focus

TSMC is expected to report strong Q3 revenue growth driven by AI and advanced nodes, while facing pressure from weakening margins and slowing...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

​Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

​TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

Episode 88: AI Accellerators, Startup graveyard? With Special Guest Austin Lyons

The transition to the AI era of backend technology is being driven by software advancements outpacing hardware advancements in the silicon...

The Circuit

TSMC's Q3 Earnings Preview: Investors to Eye AI Demand Boost, Margins in Focus

TSMC is expected to report strong Q3 revenue growth driven by AI and advanced nodes, while facing pressure from weakening margins and slowing...

Mint Finance

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...