Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

During the most recent earnings season, most semiconductor companies noted only relatively minor impact to their forecasts for the current quarter. While not immune to the stock market crash back in March, there has been a general sense that semiconductor companies will be relatively less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently though, and increasingly so as we enter the latest earnings season, many semiconductor companies are retracting guidance, freezing share buyback schemes and, in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML</a> this week, electing to provide no forward guidance whatsoever. Here's a roundup of what the major semiconductor companies have been saying in recent weeks.

During the most recent earnings season, most semiconductor companies noted only relatively minor impact to their forecasts for the current quarter. While not immune to the stock market crash back in March, there has been a general sense that semiconductor companies will be relatively less impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently though, and increasingly so as we enter the latest earnings season, many semiconductor companies are retracting guidance, freezing share buyback schemes and, in the case of ASML this week, electing to provide no forward guidance whatsoever. Here's a roundup of what the major semiconductor companies have been saying in recent weeks. 

COVID-19 & Semiconductors: Profit Warnings Piling Up Ahead Of Earnings.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February.  While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's figures are only the beginning of the upcoming downturn.  This Smartkarma Insight uses the industry's historical trends to give an early and rough indication of how the market might evolve.

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February.  While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's figures are only the beginning of the upcoming downturn.  This Smartkarma Insight uses the industry's historical trends to give an early and rough indication of how the market might evolve.

February Semiconductors Show Onset of COVID-19 Decline

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

COVID-19 & Semiconductors: Profit Warnings Piling Up Ahead Of Earnings.

During the most recent earnings season, most semiconductor companies noted only relatively minor impact to their forecasts for the current quarter....

William Keating

February Semiconductors Show Onset of COVID-19 Decline

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February. While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's...

Jim Handy

U.S. Equities: Test Of The Lows Coming?

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

S&P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)