Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.</li>
<li>While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.</li>
<li>We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.</li>
</ul>


We believe TSMC represents defensive exposure to AI for investors concerned that many other AI-related stocks' valuations may be too high.
While one may think TSMC seems too obvious as a play, we note that the stock is up only 4.5% over the last six months.
We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards turn out to be true.


TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.</li>
<li>Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.</li>
<li>Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.
Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.
Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>More y/y improvement (or decline deceleration) for PC/server, power management IC (PMIC), CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF/VCSEL, gaming GPU card, memory, and foundry vendors</li>
<li>GaAs RF/VCSEL and gaming GPU card vendors saw very impressive sales growth, driven by new phones introduction and rush orders to use NVIDIA RTX 4090 gaming card for AI training.</li>
<li>Stronger than expected Oct for TSMC and Gigabyte might drive 4Q sales and near term share price upside; Visera, Andes Tech, and AP Memory might see sales and price downside.</li>
</ul>


More y/y improvement (or decline deceleration) for PC/server, power management IC (PMIC), CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF/VCSEL, gaming GPU card, memory, and foundry vendors
GaAs RF/VCSEL and gaming GPU card vendors saw very impressive sales growth, driven by new phones introduction and rush orders to use NVIDIA RTX 4090 gaming card for AI training.
Stronger than expected Oct for TSMC and Gigabyte might drive 4Q sales and near term share price upside; Visera, Andes Tech, and AP Memory might see sales and price downside.


What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.</li>
<li>However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. </li>
<li>The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports September front end and back end test/assembly equipment sales decline of 18% and 25% y/y, respectively, resulting 3Q23 sales decline of 17% and 28% y/y.
However, WSTS/SIA and US ISM Purchasing Managers Index reported more moderate 7% y/y decline in August global semi sales and 4% y/y decline in September index. 
The discrepancy is due to global semi vendors are seeing PC and Smartphone IC improvement but need to consume earlier overbuilt inventories first before boosting in house or foundries' capex.


What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

TSMC: Defensive AI Play in Long Upward Re-Rating Trend?

We view TSMC as trading at an inexpensive valuation; even a cheap valuation should our hypothesis that the stock is structurally re-rating upwards...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales? PC/server, PMIC, CMOS sensor/touch controller, GaAs RF, gaming GPU card, memory...

Andrew Lu

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

What Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us?

Sep US SEMI Equipment and Aug SIA/WSTS Global Sales Y/Y Discrepancy Tells Us global semi vendors are consuming earlier overbuilt inventories first...

Andrew Lu

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