Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia, AMD launch a new GPU every 2 years. At each generation, higher performance manufacturing (TSMC) and HBM (higher density, higher speed, thinner layers). Hence, cost increase at each generation. </li>
<li>Price and volumes are negotiated 1 year ahead. TSMC, SK Hynix expect AI / HBM revenues to double in 2025. Expect another 50-60% in 2026. </li>
<li>Why HBM attracts less interest than Foundry (TSMC) or Design (AMD, AVGO, Nvidia)? Mostly, investor still think this is a cyclical business – HBM isn’t.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia, AMD launch a new GPU every 2 years. At each generation, higher performance manufacturing (TSMC) and HBM (higher density, higher speed, thinner layers). Hence, cost increase at each generation. 
Price and volumes are negotiated 1 year ahead. TSMC, SK Hynix expect AI / HBM revenues to double in 2025. Expect another 50-60% in 2026. 
Why HBM attracts less interest than Foundry (TSMC) or Design (AMD, AVGO, Nvidia)? Mostly, investor still think this is a cyclical business – HBM isn’t.


HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>Huawei is a major player in the AI chip industry, challenging Nvidia's dominance</li><li>The company's European-style headquarters and aggressive sales tactics raise questions about its true nature</li><li>Ren Zhengfei's rare interview with People's Daily highlights Huawei's central role in China's tech industry and diplomatic relations</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Huawei is a major player in the AI chip industry, challenging Nvidia's dominanceThe company's European-style headquarters and aggressive sales tactics raise questions about its true natureRen Zhengfei's rare interview with People's Daily highlights Huawei's central role in China's tech industry and diplomatic relationsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Chinese Chip Giant That Could Be Nvidia's Biggest Threat

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Himax Technologies Inc Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./</li>
<li>
Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.</li>
<li>
Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.</li>
</ul>



China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./

Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.

Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.


TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

<ul>
<li>Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). </li>
<li>CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  </li>
<li>The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.</li>
</ul>


Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). 
CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  
The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.


Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind</li>
<li>TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging</li>
<li>MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That

TSMC and SK Hynix expect AI/HBM revenues to double by 2025. Investors overlook HBM's potential due to misconceptions about its cyclical nature.

Nicolas Baratte

The Chinese Chip Giant That Could Be Nvidia's Biggest Threat

Huawei is a major player in the AI chip industry, challenging Nvidia's dominance The company's European-style headquarters and aggressive sales...

Odd Lots

TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That

TSMC and SK Hynix expect AI/HBM revenues to double by 2025. Investors overlook HBM's potential due to misconceptions about its cyclical nature.

Nicolas Baratte

The Chinese Chip Giant That Could Be Nvidia's Biggest Threat

Huawei is a major player in the AI chip industry, challenging Nvidia's dominance The company's European-style headquarters and aggressive sales...

Odd Lots

TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

​China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

​Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

​TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...