Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.</li>
<li>Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.</li>
</ul>


Revenue expected to be USD$28.4-29.2 bn (+13% QoQ/38% YoY), with gross margin projected to be 57-59% and operating profit margin at 47-49%.
Tariffs still have uncertainties, so our current capability to share is expected to maintain 24-26% YoY.  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona, with 2nm being the main focus there, hence 30% will be allocated there.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.</li>
<li>Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  </li>
<li>The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 strong revenue. Full year outlook (revenue up mid-20% YoY) looks a bit low since 1H25 is growing at ~37%. CoWoS and AI revenues still expected to double in 2025.
Revenue and capacity outlook: very confident. US capacity is accelerating. But margins dilution warning, part of this is US import tariffs uncertainty. Strong denial on any Intel linkup.  
The stock is cheap at 14.7x 2025 EPS (consensus probably a bit low) and 12.5x 2026 EPS. The market might still be in correction mode, but TSMC is nicely discounted. 


TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>IOH becomes the first Indonesian company to deploy Google Agentspace, marking a bold move to democratize AI across its workforce.</li><li>This aligns with Indonesia’s AI roadmap (2020–2045), where early adoption (24.6% in 2018 vs. 14% regional avg) and a projected $366bn GDP boost by 2030 highlight AI’s national priority (consulting firm Kearney and Singapore-based investment firm EDBI, 2020) </li><li>While 74% of companies struggle to scale AI, Indosat addresses key hurdles — legacy systems, high costs, and skill gaps — by making AI tools accessible to all employees, not just specialists. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

IOH becomes the first Indonesian company to deploy Google Agentspace, marking a bold move to democratize AI across its workforce.This aligns with Indonesia’s AI roadmap (2020–2045), where early adoption (24.6% in 2018 vs. 14% regional avg) and a projected $366bn GDP boost by 2030 highlight AI’s national priority (consulting firm Kearney and Singapore-based investment firm EDBI, 2020) While 74% of companies struggle to scale AI, Indosat addresses key hurdles — legacy systems, high costs, and skill gaps — by making AI tools accessible to all employees, not just specialists. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

BRIDS TMT News - Tuesday, April 15, 2025

IOH becomes the first Indonesian company to deploy Google Agentspace, marking a bold move to democratize AI across its workforce.

BRI Danareksa Research

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): No Clients Have Reacted to the Tariff Changes Since Trump Reacted so Quickly

​Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

Patrick Liao

TSMC 1H25 Revenue up 37% YoY. Upside to Full Year Outlook. AI and CoWoS Revenue Double in 2025.

​TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

Nicolas Baratte

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

BRIDS TMT News - Tuesday, April 15, 2025

IOH becomes the first Indonesian company to deploy Google Agentspace, marking a bold move to democratize AI across its workforce.

BRI Danareksa Research

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) expects strong revenue growth, plans to build 6 Fabs in Arizona with focus on 2nm technology. Tariffs pose uncertainties.

TSMC reports strong 2Q25 revenue, full year outlook seems conservative. Confident in revenue and capacity growth, but warns of margin dilution due...

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.