Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales reached a all time record high of $627.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 19.1% YoY, details here:</li>
<li>As anticipated, semi sales eased off in December 2024, reaching $57.0 billion, a decrease of 1.2% MoM but still up 17% YoY.</li>
<li>WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward to &gt;15% </li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales reached a all time record high of $627.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 19.1% YoY, details here:
As anticipated, semi sales eased off in December 2024, reaching $57.0 billion, a decrease of 1.2% MoM but still up 17% YoY.
WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward to &gt;15% 


Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race -- Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance</li>
<li>TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% -- But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact</li>
<li>Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and 'Strong'</li>
</ul>


OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race -- Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% -- But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and 'Strong'


Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.</li>
<li>DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.</li>
<li>Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. </li>
</ul>


Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation.  China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
DeepSeek's announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump's hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market. 


The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

<ul>
<li>Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market</li>
<li>Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights -- Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share</li>
<li>Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights -- Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA</li>
</ul>


Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market
Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights -- Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share
Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights -- Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA


PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses. </li>
<li>Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.</li>
<li>GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon's effect on resource allocation. </li>
</ul>


1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses. 
Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.
GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon's effect on resource allocation. 


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?

WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E

OpenAI partners with TSMC and Broadcom to reduce reliance on Nvidia in AI chip race, while Hon Hai expects above average and 'strong' growth in...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Trump's tariff actions against China have resulted in a muted response from Xi in retaliatory tariffs. Instead Xi has targeted the US tech sector...

David Mudd

PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market

ARM-based chips, led by Qualcomm and Mediatek, are poised to disrupt the PC market with successful market share gains and collaborations with...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.

MediaTek's 1Q25 outlook shows growth in revenue and smartphone sales, driven by successful product launches and demand in China. GAI innovation...

Patrick Liao

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Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record High Of $627.6 Billion in 2024. Where To Now?

WSTS is forecasting 11.2% growth in 2025. Based on the planned ~40% increase in Mag7 CapEx, we think this is too low and needs to be revised upward...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E

​OpenAI partners with TSMC and Broadcom to reduce reliance on Nvidia in AI chip race, while Hon Hai expects above average and 'strong' growth in...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves

Trump's tariff actions against China have resulted in a muted response from Xi in retaliatory tariffs. Instead Xi has targeted the US tech sector...

David Mudd

PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market

​ARM-based chips, led by Qualcomm and Mediatek, are poised to disrupt the PC market with successful market share gains and collaborations with...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.

​MediaTek's 1Q25 outlook shows growth in revenue and smartphone sales, driven by successful product launches and demand in China. GAI innovation...

Patrick Liao

OpenAI partners with TSMC and Broadcom to reduce reliance on Nvidia in AI chip race, while Hon Hai expects above average and 'strong' growth in...

ARM-based chips, led by Qualcomm and Mediatek, are poised to disrupt the PC market with successful market share gains and collaborations with...

MediaTek's 1Q25 outlook shows growth in revenue and smartphone sales, driven by successful product launches and demand in China. GAI innovation...