Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

<ul>
<li>
Mine supply is stuck near 3,600 tonnes a year. Central bank buying doubled after the Russia-Ukraine war, from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes, squeezing everyone else.</li>
<li>
Debasement, not real rates, drives gold now. Yields that signal fiscal stress pull money in, not out. August proved it: rates stayed high, gold rallied anyway. Intervention does the same.</li>
<li>
Three small- to mid-cap stocks we like to play the gold theme are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesdome-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:53204:1" rel="noopener">Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Mine supply is stuck near 3,600 tonnes a year. Central bank buying doubled after the Russia-Ukraine war, from 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes, squeezing everyone else.

Debasement, not real rates, drives gold now. Yields that signal fiscal stress pull money in, not out. August proved it: rates stayed high, gold rallied anyway. Intervention does the same.

Three small- to mid-cap stocks we like to play the gold theme are OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) / Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome Gold Mines (WDO CN)



$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

<ul>
<li>Earnings still carried by price. Q2 FY26 revenue of $126.9M rose 32% YoY, and net income rose 124% to $32.7M, on realized gold of $4,319/oz.</li>
<li>Costs broke higher. AISC of $1,589/oz is a two-year peak; free cash flow turned negative at $17.8M on working capital deterioration, and cash fell to $62.3M.</li>
<li>Valuation is still cheap. At PHP 34.80, OGP trades on 9.9x FY26e P/E, 4.9x EV/EBITDA, and a 10.1% yield, assuming $4,000/oz gold.</li>
</ul>


Earnings still carried by price. Q2 FY26 revenue of $126.9M rose 32% YoY, and net income rose 124% to $32.7M, on realized gold of $4,319/oz.
Costs broke higher. AISC of $1,589/oz is a two-year peak; free cash flow turned negative at $17.8M on working capital deterioration, and cash fell to $62.3M.
Valuation is still cheap. At PHP 34.80, OGP trades on 9.9x FY26e P/E, 4.9x EV/EBITDA, and a 10.1% yield, assuming $4,000/oz gold.


OceanaGold (OGP PM), Inc. Q2 FY2026 : Strong Results and Weak Dividend Declaration

<ul>
<li>At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.</li>
<li>We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> have impressive capital return programs.</li>
</ul>


At a gold price of USD 4,200/oz, miners are generating cash flow well in excess of sustaining capital and operating requirements, supporting balance sheet deleveraging and shareholder returns.
We compile the capital return programs of all nine names in our coverage (one by one), providing sensitivities to different gold prices and valuation comparisons across the universe. 
We like OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its 11% dividend yield. For the large caps, Newmont (NEM AU) and Barrick Mining (B US) have impressive capital return programs.


Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

<ul>
<li>Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.</li>
<li>With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> at 10.8%.</li>
<li>Our top large-cap pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>, and in the small and midcap space, we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apex-mining-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22952:1" rel="noopener">Apex Mining Co (APX PM)</a> and Wesdome Gold. </li>
</ul>


Current spot gold prices at 4,180 USD/oz are 25% lower than the January high of 5,600 USD/oz. Stocks will now report Q2 earnings (Apr-June), where gold prices averaged 4,500 USD/oz.
With gold at 4,000 USD/oz, our stock universe trades at 7.8-10x PE and 4.5-6x EV-EBITDA, with the highest dividend yield of OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) at 10.8%.
Our top large-cap pick is Barrick Mining (B US), and in the small and midcap space, we like Apex Mining Co (APX PM) and Wesdome Gold. 


Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Philippines

OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. is a leading producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, engaged in the exploration, development, and utilization of mineral resources. The company operates the Didipio gold and copper mine in the northern Luzon region, producing gold dore bars (containing gold and silver) and copper concentrate. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya, Philippines.

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OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)

$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

We highlight three undervalued small- to mid-cap gold miners. Oceanagold (OGP PM), Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome (WDO CN) are strong value...

Sameer Taneja

OceanaGold (OGP PM), Inc. Q2 FY2026 : Strong Results and Weak Dividend Declaration

OGP Q2 FY26: revenue +32% YoY on record gold, but AISC hit $1,589/oz and FCF turned negative $17.8M; 4.9x FY26e EV/EBITDA and 10.1% yield hinge on...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja

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GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Gold miners trade at 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA at $4,500/oz; YTD laggard Barrick is the cheapest on EV/EBITDA, and Oceanagold Gold offers a 12%...

Sameer Taneja

$4,500 Gold: Three Small-Mid Caps The Market Has Not Repriced

We highlight three undervalued small- to mid-cap gold miners. Oceanagold (OGP PM), Apex Mining (APX PM), and Wesdome (WDO CN) are strong value...

Sameer Taneja

OceanaGold (OGP PM), Inc. Q2 FY2026 : Strong Results and Weak Dividend Declaration

OGP Q2 FY26: revenue +32% YoY on record gold, but AISC hit $1,589/oz and FCF turned negative $17.8M; 4.9x FY26e EV/EBITDA and 10.1% yield hinge on...

Sameer Taneja

Gold Equities: A Detailed Look At The Capital Allocation Plans Of Our Universe - Barrick Gold (B US)

Barrick returned $2.2bn in H1'26, incl. $1.2bn in buybacks under a $3bn program; 50% FCF dividend policy. $1.95bn Newmont payment and North...

Sameer Taneja

Gold At 4,000 USD/Oz: Valuation Update Of Our Six Top Picks

Gold's correction gutted valuations, not fundamentals. Six miners now screen dirt cheap: net-cash balance sheets, 60%+ margins, single-digit P/Es....

Sameer Taneja