Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY CAGR, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multibagger opportunities in the Philippines.</li>
<li>Our top picks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">Keepers (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-container-terminal-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
<li>With 3QFY26 earnings around the corner, we believe Philippine consumer discretionary stocks will be affected by inflationary concerns, but we still expect resilient margins.</li>
</ul>


We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY CAGR, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multibagger opportunities in the Philippines.
Our top picks are: Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), Keepers (KEEPR PM), International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM), and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 
With 3QFY26 earnings around the corner, we believe Philippine consumer discretionary stocks will be affected by inflationary concerns, but we still expect resilient margins.


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - October 2026

<ul>
<li>
 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.</li>
<li>
 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.</li>
<li>
Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash</li>
</ul>



 High-margin leverage to gold: FY25 revenue rose 37% to US$7.05bn while production cost per ounce rose 12%, lifting cash margin to US$2,285/oz.

 Organic pipeline extends the profile: Phase X, Curlew and Redbird 2 start in 2028; Great Bear (late 2029) and Lobo-Marte add ~850koz/yr of high-grade ounces to the existing 2 Moz.

Valuation: 9.4x FY26E P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA with FY25 ROCE 29.8%; US$1.9bn net cash


Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

<ul>
<li>Mount Milligan to 2045, and Öksüt to fund Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek internally, with $451m cash, zero debt, and $1bn liquidity.</li>
<li>Q2 2026 lifted gold guidance to 260 to 290koz; Türkiye halves Öksüt's tax rate from 2027, and $200m of buybacks have been authorized.</li>
<li>At 0.53x P/NAV versus peers at 0.7x, FY26E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x, P/B of 1.95x and derived ROCE of 23.5%.</li>
</ul>


Mount Milligan to 2045, and Öksüt to fund Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek internally, with $451m cash, zero debt, and $1bn liquidity.
Q2 2026 lifted gold guidance to 260 to 290koz; Türkiye halves Öksüt's tax rate from 2027, and $200m of buybacks have been authorized.
At 0.53x P/NAV versus peers at 0.7x, FY26E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x, P/B of 1.95x and derived ROCE of 23.5%.


Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

<ul>
<li>We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multibagger opportunities in the Philippines.</li>
<li>Our top picks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">Keepers (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-container-terminal-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
<li>Q2FY26 earnings are out of the way, and we summarize the issues currently facing consumers in the Philippines as the country continues to grapple with inflationary pressures. </li>
</ul>


We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multibagger opportunities in the Philippines.
Our top picks are: Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), Keepers (KEEPR PM), International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM), and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 
Q2FY26 earnings are out of the way, and we summarize the issues currently facing consumers in the Philippines as the country continues to grapple with inflationary pressures. 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - September 2026

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines</a>, Sam Holdings IPO, and the most SET50 Index rebalance. </li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Thailand with some optimism, Vietnam as it starts to recover, Malaysia with lingering concerns, and the Philippines, as the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), OceanaGold Philippines, Sam Holdings IPO, and the most SET50 Index rebalance. 
There were also macro insights on Thailand with some optimism, Vietnam as it starts to recover, Malaysia with lingering concerns, and the Philippines, as the BSP keeps rates on hold.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BBNI's Aspirations, Oceanagold IPO, and Thailand's Recovery

Philippines

OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. is a leading producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, engaged in the exploration, development, and utilization of mineral resources. The company operates the Didipio gold and copper mine in the northern Luzon region, producing gold dore bars (containing gold and silver) and copper concentrate. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya, Philippines.

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OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - October 2026

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety, and updates...

Sameer Taneja

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX: K; NYSE: KGC): Record Margins Fund Buybacks and a Grade-Led Pipeline

Low-cost 2.0 Moz/yr gold producer with US$1.9 bn net cash and 30% ROCE, self-funding a grade-led US and Chile pipeline at 5.1x FY26E EV/EBITDA.

Sameer Taneja

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG CN): Two Funded Mines Pay for a Four-Project North American Pipeline

Debt-free mid-tier gold producer on 0.53x P/NAV, funding four North American growth projects from Mount Milligan and Öksüt cash flow, with Thompson...

Sameer Taneja

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - September 2026

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety, and updates...

Sameer Taneja

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - BBNI's Aspirations, Oceanagold IPO, and Thailand's Recovery

The past week saw insights on Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), OceanaGold Philippines, Sam Holdings IPO, and the most SET50...

Angus Mackintosh

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