New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021</p></li><li>COVID pricing buffer continues to shrink</li><li>Significant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run</li></ul>

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021COVID pricing buffer continues to shrinkSignificant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

<ul><li>The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years</li><li>Additional COVID buffer is largely exhausted</li><li>How much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort</li></ul>

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 yearsAdditional COVID buffer is largely exhaustedHow much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.</li><li>The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.</li><li>Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

<ul><li>The good: There were some bright spots in OCA's FY23 result</li><li>The bad: Both resales and new sales were substantially down versus FY22, with resales particularly disappointing given the strong 1H23.</li><li>The ugly: Our main disappointment with the result relates to the hard to explain weak care and village DMF.</li></ul>

The good: There were some bright spots in OCA's FY23 resultThe bad: Both resales and new sales were substantially down versus FY22, with resales particularly disappointing given the strong 1H23.The ugly: Our main disappointment with the result relates to the hard to explain weak care and village DMF.

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 — Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed FY23 result which included some clear positives and some clear negatives</li><li>On the positive side, record high new sales margins and pricing were a standout, demonstrating that the product that OCA is bringing to market can fetch premium pricing.</li><li>But it was not all good news.  The all-important care premium revenues were substantially below our estimates, as was traditional care revenues which only grew +2% sequentially, compared to RYM’s +7%.</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed FY23 result which included some clear positives and some clear negativesOn the positive side, record high new sales margins and pricing were a standout, demonstrating that the product that OCA is bringing to market can fetch premium pricing.But it was not all good news.  The all-important care premium revenues were substantially below our estimates, as was traditional care revenues which only grew +2% sequentially, compared to RYM’s +7%.

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): FY23 Result – First Impressions

Australia

Oceania Healthcare Limited provides healthcare services. The Company offers rest homes, hospitals, and independent living, as well as dementia, respite, and palliative care services. Oceania Healthcare serves patients in New Zealand.

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Oceania Healthcare (OCA AU)

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 — Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an underwhelming FY23 result, with a few redeeming features; OCA has delivered opaque earnings over the last few...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): FY23 Result – First Impressions

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed FY23 result which included some clear positives and some clear negatives; On the positive side, record...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 — Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an underwhelming FY23 result, with a few redeeming features; OCA has delivered opaque earnings over the last few...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): FY23 Result – First Impressions

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed FY23 result which included some clear positives and some clear negatives; On the positive side, record...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index