New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) will report its 1H25 result on Friday, 22 November.</li><li>Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and (2) OCA's recent disappointments in reducing net debt.</li><li>But we see the potential for OCA to report lower net debt, aided by previously announced asset sales, becoming the first in the sector to do so for some time. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) will report its 1H25 result on Friday, 22 November.Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and (2) OCA's recent disappointments in reducing net debt.But we see the potential for OCA to report lower net debt, aided by previously announced asset sales, becoming the first in the sector to do so for some time. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Saint Helier to the Rescue?

<ul>
<li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an in-line result at our annuity EBITDA line and a decent beat at the volatile new sales gain line.</li>
<li>We see the results as a side show to the broader issues of: (1) too much debt; (2) capital raise concerns; and (3) long-term cash generation and profitability.</li>
<li>On the first two issues we believe OCA got the message and appears to be targeting a dramatic reduction in capex. </li>
</ul>


Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an in-line result at our annuity EBITDA line and a decent beat at the volatile new sales gain line.
We see the results as a side show to the broader issues of: (1) too much debt; (2) capital raise concerns; and (3) long-term cash generation and profitability.
On the first two issues we believe OCA got the message and appears to be targeting a dramatic reduction in capex. 


Oceania Healthcare - FY24 Result — Got the Memo

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations.</li><li>2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. </li><li>While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations.2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. 

Oceania Healthcare - Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled, Again

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.</li><li>The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.</li><li>Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered a weak, yet somewhat reassuring 1H24 result.The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads versus our expectations.Our main takeaway is the reduced risk of a downside scenario for the sector in general, with three reasons in particular for OCA. (1) OCA delivered all time high ORA sales of ~NZ$129m, +NZ$10m above its previous record in 1H21. 

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

<ul><li>The good: There were some bright spots in OCA's FY23 result</li><li>The bad: Both resales and new sales were substantially down versus FY22, with resales particularly disappointing given the strong 1H23.</li><li>The ugly: Our main disappointment with the result relates to the hard to explain weak care and village DMF.</li></ul>

The good: There were some bright spots in OCA's FY23 resultThe bad: Both resales and new sales were substantially down versus FY22, with resales particularly disappointing given the strong 1H23.The ugly: Our main disappointment with the result relates to the hard to explain weak care and village DMF.

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 — Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled

Australia

Oceania Healthcare Limited provides healthcare services. The Company offers rest homes, hospitals, and independent living, as well as dementia, respite, and palliative care services. Oceania Healthcare serves patients in New Zealand.

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Oceania Healthcare (OCA AU)

Oceania Healthcare - 1H25 Preview — Saint Helier to the Rescue?

Expectations are relatively subdued ahead of its result, given the: (1) continued soft NZ housing market likely weighing on unit sales, and...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - FY24 Result — Got the Memo

We see the results as a side show to the broader issues of: (1) too much debt; (2) capital raise concerns; and (3) long-term cash generation and...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled, Again

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations. 2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - 1H24 Result — Weak Yet Reassuring

The weakness was undramatic and primarily related to increased village opex, driven by two village openings and slightly higher corporate overheads...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: FY23 — Turnaround Delayed but Not Cancelled

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported an underwhelming FY23 result, with a few redeeming features; OCA has delivered opaque earnings over the last few...

Forsyth Barr

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