New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is set to report its FY25 result on Thursday, 22 May 2025, with guidance being a key focus due to its recent trading update.</li><li>The market has been losing faith in OCA's care-focused business model, and the company must deliver on reducing head-office costs, reducing net debt, and planning to sell down its flagship Auckland village to regain confidence in FY26.</li><li>New management has highlighted NZ$10m-$15m of additional cost savings and expects improvement in care margins with operational improvements as a focus.</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is set to report its FY25 result on Thursday, 22 May 2025, with guidance being a key focus due to its recent trading update.The market has been losing faith in OCA's care-focused business model, and the company must deliver on reducing head-office costs, reducing net debt, and planning to sell down its flagship Auckland village to regain confidence in FY26.New management has highlighted NZ$10m-$15m of additional cost savings and expects improvement in care margins with operational improvements as a focus.

Oceania Healthcare - FY25 Preview—Focus on the Future

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) has emphatically rebutted any suggestions that it needed more capital.</li><li>Sales remain soft but have not deteriorated; they are still growing year over year.</li><li>OCA has announced a cost-out program of NZ$10m-$15m, but will close its Nursing school, impacting EBITDA by ~6%.</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) has emphatically rebutted any suggestions that it needed more capital.Sales remain soft but have not deteriorated; they are still growing year over year.OCA has announced a cost-out program of NZ$10m-$15m, but will close its Nursing school, impacting EBITDA by ~6%.

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) released an unscheduled update to the market.</li><li>The key messages were: (1) soft but not deteriorating demand, (2) confidence in its capital structure, and (3) a reiteration of meaningful cost savings to come.</li><li>These messages are likely to alleviate concerns around its balance sheet that may have been priced into the stock, following Ryman Healthcare's (RYM's) capital raise. </li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) released an unscheduled update to the market.The key messages were: (1) soft but not deteriorating demand, (2) confidence in its capital structure, and (3) a reiteration of meaningful cost savings to come.These messages are likely to alleviate concerns around its balance sheet that may have been priced into the stock, following Ryman Healthcare's (RYM's) capital raise. 

Oceania Healthcare - Worse than Hoped, Better than Feared

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Care has been a persistent drag on profitability for most of NZ’s retirement sector in recent years.</li><li>Summerset (SUM) is the most levered to successful execution of its strategy, given the significant targeted increase in its ORA penetration.</li><li>Our preferred names in the sector are Summerset (SUM) and Oceania Healthcare (OCA) which are both rated OUTPERFORM.</li></ul>

Care has been a persistent drag on profitability for most of NZ’s retirement sector in recent years.Summerset (SUM) is the most levered to successful execution of its strategy, given the significant targeted increase in its ORA penetration.Our preferred names in the sector are Summerset (SUM) and Oceania Healthcare (OCA) which are both rated OUTPERFORM.

Aged Care Sector Digging Into Care—It’s Now ORA Never

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.</li><li>The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.</li><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and manage inventory.The New Zealand housing market remains a challenge for the aged care sector, but there are signs of stabilization with stable prices, declining mortgage rates, and increased turnover.Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is rated as the top pick in the aged care sector, with positive outlook based on its care ORA exposure.

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

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Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Oceania Healthcare - FY25 Preview—Focus on the Future

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) is set to report its FY25 result on Thursday, 22 May 2025, with guidance being a key focus due to its recent trading update.

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): Market update

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) has emphatically rebutted any suggestions that it needed more capital. Sales remain soft but have not deteriorated; they...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare - Worse than Hoped, Better than Feared

The key messages were: (1) soft but not deteriorating demand, (2) confidence in its capital structure, and (3) a reiteration of meaningful cost...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector Digging Into Care—It’s Now ORA Never

Summerset (SUM) is the most levered to successful execution of its strategy, given the significant targeted increase in its ORA penetration.

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) has expanded its price cuts to approximately one-third of its portfolio, including serviced apartments, to boost sales and...

Forsyth Barr

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