New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><p>Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021</p></li><li>COVID pricing buffer continues to shrink</li><li>Significant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run</li></ul>

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever so slightly in August, up +0.2% versus July 2022 and up ~+7% versus August 2021COVID pricing buffer continues to shrinkSignificant swings in the short run starting to impact the long run

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

<ul><li>The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years</li><li>Additional COVID buffer is largely exhausted</li><li>How much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort</li></ul>

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 yearsAdditional COVID buffer is largely exhaustedHow much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update.</li><li>However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points to a meaningful acceleration in contracting activity over late May and June.</li><li>With RYM trading on ~21x 12-month forward annuity earnings despite our forecast three-year forward annuity EPS CAGR of &gt;50%, we continue to view the risk–reward as attractive.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update.However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points to a meaningful acceleration in contracting activity over late May and June.With RYM trading on ~21x 12-month forward annuity earnings despite our forecast three-year forward annuity EPS CAGR of &gt;50%, we continue to view the risk–reward as attractive.

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported a solid 2Q26 sales update against a relatively challenging operating backdrop.</li><li>SUM has lowered its NZ build rate guidance for FY26 by 50 homes to reflect changing economic conditions.</li><li>We retain our OUTPERFORM rating with an unchanged target price of NZ$12.60.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported a solid 2Q26 sales update against a relatively challenging operating backdrop.SUM has lowered its NZ build rate guidance for FY26 by 50 homes to reflect changing economic conditions.We retain our OUTPERFORM rating with an unchanged target price of NZ$12.60.

Summerset Group 2Q26 Sales Update—Foundations Still in Place

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) 2025 investor day focused on transparency, sales execution, and cash discipline.</li><li>OCA is cash-generative and trades at &lt;0.5x book value.</li><li>We retain OUTPERFORM with an unchanged target price of NZ$0.84.</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) 2025 investor day focused on transparency, sales execution, and cash discipline.OCA is cash-generative and trades at &lt;0.5x book value.We retain OUTPERFORM with an unchanged target price of NZ$0.84.

New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update. However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group 2Q26 Sales Update—Foundations Still in Place

Summerset (SUM) reported a solid 2Q26 sales update against a relatively challenging operating backdrop. SUM has lowered its NZ build rate guidance...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare Glass Half Full

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) 2025 investor day focused on transparency, sales execution, and cash discipline.OCA is cash-generative and trades at...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing ​​​Index

Despite the biggest (nominal) house price decline in NZ for at least 50 years, our Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged care pricing index increased ever...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update. However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group 2Q26 Sales Update—Foundations Still in Place

Summerset (SUM) reported a solid 2Q26 sales update against a relatively challenging operating backdrop. SUM has lowered its NZ build rate guidance...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare Glass Half Full

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) 2025 investor day focused on transparency, sales execution, and cash discipline.OCA is cash-generative and trades at...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index