Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.There were 21 changes to the index at the June review, and we expect up to 24 changes in the December review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.06% and there are 4 inclusions and 11 deletions that could have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.With passive tracking products holding around US$28bn of AUM, plus another US$35bn in open interest on the listed futures, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names ahead of the rebalance announcement. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off.

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.There were 21 changes to the index at the June review, and we expect up to 24 changes in the December review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.06% and there are 4 inclusions and 11 deletions that could have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.With passive tracking products holding around US$28bn of AUM, plus another US$35bn in open interest on the listed futures, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names ahead of the rebalance announcement. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 21 Changes in June, Could Be 24 in December

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We do understand the cultural need for upward bias in Analyst Recommendations, but 191 out of 395 companies in China only have BUY recommendations. That means that 48% of companies with 4 or more Analysts only have BUY recommendations. We define "BUY" as any positive analyst rating. Now we looked back in time to see if this was an anomaly and it really is not. Earlier this year 44% of companies only had BUY recommendations and back in 2015 55% of companies only had BUY recommendations in China…

We do understand the cultural need for upward bias in Analyst Recommendations, but 191 out of 395 companies in China only have BUY recommendations. That means that 48% of companies with 4 or more Analysts only have BUY recommendations. We define "BUY" as any positive analyst rating. Now we looked back in time to see if this was an anomaly and it really is not. Earlier this year 44% of companies only had BUY recommendations and back in 2015 55% of companies only had BUY recommendations in China…

Hated Names in China and It Is Difficult to Be Hated in China....

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 </a>with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/saudi-aramco-value-tn-maybe-not" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8177">Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not!</a> my…

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO https://www.ft.com/content/41af604e-0315-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9 with the following conclusion "Saudi Aramco will initially list as much as 5% of the company and investors and analysts have questioned the size of Riyadh’s $2tn valuation. But even if it reaches just half that target it would still raise $50bn — twice as much as Alibaba’s record IPO in 2014."Back in Saudi Aramco Value: $tn? Maybe Not! my…

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

China

Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. provides offshore oil engineering services, including designing, construction, installation, and repair and maintenance services.  The Company's main businesses include oil/gas exploration engineering, subsea pipeline laying, oil/gas field equipment testing and maintenance, as well as pressure container and steel structure manufacturing.

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Offshore Oil Engineering A (600583 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 21 Changes in June, Could Be 24 in December

There could be 24 changes to the CSI300 index at the December review with an estimated one-way turnover of 4.06%. 4 inclusions and 11 deletions are...

Brian Freitas

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

Hated Names in China and It Is Difficult to Be Hated in China....

We do understand the cultural need for upward bias in Analyst Recommendations, but 191 out of 395 companies in China only have BUY recommendations....

Custom Products Group

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel

New York and London Battle for Saudi Aramco IPO

Interesting article in the Financial Time (FT) on stock exchanges fighting for Saudi Aramco IPO...

Thierry Bros, PhD

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