External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Pakistan Oilfields (POL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future outlook.</li><li>Production from Razgir has commenced, with current output at 20-25mmcfd. Following planned plant enhancements, production capacity is expected to be increased to 30mmcfd. These enhancement works are targeted for completion by end of 2025.</li><li>Management noted that the third-party allocation of Razgir gas allows the company to realize a 16% premium over PP2012 pricing for the field.</li></ul>

Pakistan Oilfields (POL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future outlook.Production from Razgir has commenced, with current output at 20-25mmcfd. Following planned plant enhancements, production capacity is expected to be increased to 30mmcfd. These enhancement works are targeted for completion by end of 2025.Management noted that the third-party allocation of Razgir gas allows the company to realize a 16% premium over PP2012 pricing for the field.

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Oilfields (POL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

<ul><li>The company announced its highest ever dividend in FY25, declaring Rs5/share for the quarter Rs15.05/share for the full year.</li><li>Management noted that gas curtailment from SNGPL driven by excess RLNG has resulted in an estimated revenue loss of Rs40-43bn during FY25.</li><li>Production from the Wali Block is expected to commence in 2 months with initial flows projected between 25-35 mmcfd of gas and 2500-3500 barrels of oil per day.</li></ul>

The company announced its highest ever dividend in FY25, declaring Rs5/share for the quarter Rs15.05/share for the full year.Management noted that gas curtailment from SNGPL driven by excess RLNG has resulted in an estimated revenue loss of Rs40-43bn during FY25.Production from the Wali Block is expected to commence in 2 months with initial flows projected between 25-35 mmcfd of gas and 2500-3500 barrels of oil per day.

Topline Flash Note: Oil & Gas Development (OGDC) - Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

<ul><li>OGDC reported a 15% QoQ decline in earnings to Rs9.37/share in 4QFY25, taking FY25 earnings to Rs39.5/share, down 19% YoY.</li><li>Earnings are higher than our expectations, primarily due to lower exploration costs and a lower Effective Tax Rate (ETR), which stood at Rs4.1bn and 28% respectively in 4QFY25.</li><li>Exploration costs in 4QFY25 went down by 40% QoQ to Rs4bn. While for FY25, exploration cost was at Rs18.7bn, on account of 3 dry wells, Kandewaro-1, TAY NE-1 and Chak202 besides the ongoing seismic activities in several areas such as Uch D&PL, Murradi and Sehwan.</li></ul>

OGDC reported a 15% QoQ decline in earnings to Rs9.37/share in 4QFY25, taking FY25 earnings to Rs39.5/share, down 19% YoY.Earnings are higher than our expectations, primarily due to lower exploration costs and a lower Effective Tax Rate (ETR), which stood at Rs4.1bn and 28% respectively in 4QFY25.Exploration costs in 4QFY25 went down by 40% QoQ to Rs4bn. While for FY25, exploration cost was at Rs18.7bn, on account of 3 dry wells, Kandewaro-1, TAY NE-1 and Chak202 besides the ongoing seismic activities in several areas such as Uch D&PL, Murradi and Sehwan.

Oil & Gas Development (OGDC): 4QFY25 EPS At Rs9.37, Up 6% YoY And Down 15% QoQ – Higher Than Expectations

Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGP PA)

<ul><li>As per news reports, Federal Cabinet has lifted ban on new gas connection, however, these new connections will be provided at RLNG rate, which is around US$12-13/mmbtu, or Rs3,300-3,700/mmbtu.</li><li>We believe, the lifting of ban on gas connections will bode well for E&P companies as alone SNGP has curtailed over 300 mmcfd of gas from domestic gas exploration companies namely PPL, OGDC, MARI, and POL.</li><li>With news reports suggesting pending gas connection request of 3.2mn (for SNGP) and assuming 3.5mn country wide gas connection requests, this has potential to consume additional 250mmcfd of gas (equivalent to 2.5 cargoes additional).</li></ul>

As per news reports, Federal Cabinet has lifted ban on new gas connection, however, these new connections will be provided at RLNG rate, which is around US$12-13/mmbtu, or Rs3,300-3,700/mmbtu.We believe, the lifting of ban on gas connections will bode well for E&P companies as alone SNGP has curtailed over 300 mmcfd of gas from domestic gas exploration companies namely PPL, OGDC, MARI, and POL.With news reports suggesting pending gas connection request of 3.2mn (for SNGP) and assuming 3.5mn country wide gas connection requests, this has potential to consume additional 250mmcfd of gas (equivalent to 2.5 cargoes additional).

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan E&Ps and Sui Cos: Lifting of Ban on Gas Connection; Some Respite for Domestic E&Ps Production

<ul><li>Topline Securities organized the Pakistan Day Conference 2025 for foreign investors. The conference began with a session on OGDC, where the key speaker of the session was Mr. Anas Farook, CFO of OGDC.</li><li>Regarding the ongoing offshore bidding round, management stated that discussions are underway with several US based petroleum and services companies. The company has also signed an MOU with Turkish Petroleum for offshore blocks.</li><li>The company expects to receive the second interest instalment of Rs7.7bn against TFCs issued by the government within the next 7 days. This will bring the outstanding interest amount down to Rs76.6bn, payable over the next 10 months.</li></ul>

Topline Securities organized the Pakistan Day Conference 2025 for foreign investors. The conference began with a session on OGDC, where the key speaker of the session was Mr. Anas Farook, CFO of OGDC.Regarding the ongoing offshore bidding round, management stated that discussions are underway with several US based petroleum and services companies. The company has also signed an MOU with Turkish Petroleum for offshore blocks.The company expects to receive the second interest instalment of Rs7.7bn against TFCs issued by the government within the next 7 days. This will bring the outstanding interest amount down to Rs76.6bn, payable over the next 10 months.

Pakistan Day Conference 2025 - OGDC To Receive Rs80bn From Uch Power Under Power Sector Circular Debt Resolution

Pakistan

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

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Oil & Gas Development (OGDC PA)

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Oilfields (POL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Pakistan Oilfields (POL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Oil & Gas Development (OGDC) - Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

The company announced its highest ever dividend in FY25, declaring Rs5/share for the quarter Rs15.05/share for the full year. Management noted...

Topline Securities

Oil & Gas Development (OGDC): 4QFY25 EPS At Rs9.37, Up 6% YoY And Down 15% QoQ – Higher Than Expectations

OGDC reported a 15% QoQ decline in earnings to Rs9.37/share in 4QFY25, taking FY25 earnings to Rs39.5/share, down 19% YoY. Earnings are higher...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan E&Ps and Sui Cos: Lifting of Ban on Gas Connection; Some Respite for Domestic E&Ps Production

As per news reports, Federal Cabinet has lifted ban on new gas connection, however, these new connections will be provided at RLNG rate, which is...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Day Conference 2025 - OGDC To Receive Rs80bn From Uch Power Under Power Sector Circular Debt Resolution

Topline Securities organized the Pakistan Day Conference 2025 for foreign investors. The conference began with a session on OGDC, where the key...

Topline Securities

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