External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas production</li><li>In Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory levies</li><li>PAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costs</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas productionIn Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory leviesPAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%</li><li>However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gas</li><li>Q2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expenses</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gasQ2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expensesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE,

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive valuation of 4.7x Mar-25 EPS, a ~10% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.2x, 0.7x Mar-25 P/Bv with RoE of ~16%, and a dividend yield of ~6%</li><li>However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gas</li><li>Q2FY24 reported EBITDA at INR 184bn (-2% YoY, -6% QoQ), coming in marginally below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected statutory levies and other expenses</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE

<ul><li>ITC: ITC’s Q1 print was operationally in line, with EBITDA/APAT growing by 11/18% vs the expectation of 11/16%</li><li>Cigarette net revenue/EBIT growth was at 11% each, with volume growth at c.8% (4% four-year CAGR)</li><li>The relative stability in taxes backed by deterrent action by agencies on illicit trade continued to support cigarette recovery</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC: ITC’s Q1 print was operationally in line, with EBITDA/APAT growing by 11/18% vs the expectation of 11/16%Cigarette net revenue/EBIT growth was at 11% each, with volume growth at c.8% (4% four-year CAGR)The relative stability in taxes backed by deterrent action by agencies on illicit trade continued to support cigarette recoveryContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, ONGC, Crompton Consumer, TTK Prestige, Galaxy Surfactants

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 168, based on oil and gas production growth at 5/8% CAGR over FY23-25E, attractive valuations of 3.7x FY24 EPS—an ~31% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.4x, 0.6x FY24 P/Bv with RoE of ~18% and a dividend yield of ~7%</li><li>However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gas</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA was at INR 163bn, coming in below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected other expenses however, higher exploratory costs and an exceptional item resulted in a quarterly loss of INR 2.5bn</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 168, based on oil and gas production growth at 5/8% CAGR over FY23-25E, attractive valuations of 3.7x FY24 EPS—an ~31% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.4x, 0.6x FY24 P/Bv with RoE of ~18% and a dividend yield of ~7%However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gasQ4FY23 EBITDA was at INR 163bn, coming in below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected other expenses however, higher exploratory costs and an exceptional item resulted in a quarterly loss of INR 2.5bnContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Balkrishna Industries, NCC, Sobha, Greenlam Industries

India

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is India's largest crude oil and natural gas company, engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas. It supplies crude oil, natural gas, and value-added products to major Indian oil and gas refining and marketing companies. The company is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was founded on August 14, 1956.

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Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC IN)

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE,

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Eicher Motors, Trent, Berger Paints, BSE

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 208, based on oil and gas production growth at 6/9% CAGR over FY24-26E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, ONGC, Crompton Consumer, TTK Prestige, Galaxy Surfactants

ITC’s Q1 print was operationally in line, with EBITDA/APAT growing by 11/18% vs the expectation of 11/16%C. igarette net revenue/EBIT growth was at...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Balkrishna Industries, NCC, Sobha, Greenlam Industries

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 168, based on oil and gas production growth at 5/8% CAGR over FY23-25E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

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