New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade Mainfreight (MFT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, following a softer-than-expected 1H26 result, but one where management provided a more positive outlook, suggesting the company is now through an earnings-cycle inflection point.</li><li>This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new business wins and cyclical green shoots.</li><li>MFT's ability to accelerate profit growth out of a down cycle is due to consistent customer acquisition—often at sub-optimal rates—that are subsequently reset as conditions improve.</li></ul>

We upgrade Mainfreight (MFT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, following a softer-than-expected 1H26 result, but one where management provided a more positive outlook, suggesting the company is now through an earnings-cycle inflection point.This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new business wins and cyclical green shoots.MFT's ability to accelerate profit growth out of a down cycle is due to consistent customer acquisition—often at sub-optimal rates—that are subsequently reset as conditions improve.

Mainfreight 1H26—Accelerating Through the Camber

<ul><li>Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.</li><li>After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.</li><li>Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.</li></ul>

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.

United States

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is an inter-regional and multi-regional motor carrier.  The Company primarily transports less-than-truckload shipments of general commodities, such as consumer goods, textiles, and capital goods.  Old Dominion serves regional markets throughout the United States.

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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL US)

Mainfreight 1H26—Accelerating Through the Camber

This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight Freighting Re-Rating

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.

Forsyth Barr

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