Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Old Republic International (ORI) reported its second-quarter 2025 results showcasing steady growth and profitability despite challenges in specific business lines.</li><li>The company's consolidated pretax operating income increased to $267.5 million from $253.8 million in the prior year's quarter, with a marginal change in the consolidated combined ratio from 93.5 to 93.6. In the Specialty Insurance segment, ORI experienced a notable 14.6% increase in net premiums earned, resulting in pretax operating income growth from $202.5 million to $253.7 million.</li><li>The combined ratio in this segment improved to 90.7 from 92.4, aided by favorable development in workers' compensation, commercial auto, and property lines.</li></ul>

Old Republic International (ORI) reported its second-quarter 2025 results showcasing steady growth and profitability despite challenges in specific business lines.The company's consolidated pretax operating income increased to $267.5 million from $253.8 million in the prior year's quarter, with a marginal change in the consolidated combined ratio from 93.5 to 93.6. In the Specialty Insurance segment, ORI experienced a notable 14.6% increase in net premiums earned, resulting in pretax operating income growth from $202.5 million to $253.7 million.The combined ratio in this segment improved to 90.7 from 92.4, aided by favorable development in workers' compensation, commercial auto, and property lines.

Old Republic International Corporation: Specialty Insurance Strategy As A Vital Growth Tool!

<ul><li>Old Republic International Corporation's first-quarter 2025 financial results reflect robust growth and improved profitability across its key business segments.</li><li>The company reported a consolidated pre-tax operating income of $252.7 million, an increase from $231.5 million in the same quarter the previous year.</li><li>The consolidated combined ratio improved slightly to 93.7% from 94.3%, highlighting effective cost management and underwriting discipline.</li></ul>

Old Republic International Corporation's first-quarter 2025 financial results reflect robust growth and improved profitability across its key business segments.The company reported a consolidated pre-tax operating income of $252.7 million, an increase from $231.5 million in the same quarter the previous year.The consolidated combined ratio improved slightly to 93.7% from 94.3%, highlighting effective cost management and underwriting discipline.

Old Republic International: Specialty Insurance Growth to Strongly Influence The Company's Financial Health & Stock Value!

<ul><li>Old Republic International delivered a commendable performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, with consolidated pretax operating income up by 20%, reaching $285 million from $237 million the previous year.</li><li>This increase reflects the strategic focus on Specialty Insurance, which demonstrated significant growth in net premiums earned by 13%, bolstering pretax operating income to $228 million, an increase from $195 million last year.</li><li>The consolidated combined ratio improved slightly to 92.7% from 93.3%, indicating a more efficient underwriting performance, primarily attributed to the Specialty Insurance segment's resilience.</li></ul>

Old Republic International delivered a commendable performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, with consolidated pretax operating income up by 20%, reaching $285 million from $237 million the previous year.This increase reflects the strategic focus on Specialty Insurance, which demonstrated significant growth in net premiums earned by 13%, bolstering pretax operating income to $228 million, an increase from $195 million last year.The consolidated combined ratio improved slightly to 92.7% from 93.3%, indicating a more efficient underwriting performance, primarily attributed to the Specialty Insurance segment's resilience.

Old Republic International: An Insight Into Its Capital Management Approach!

United States

Old Republic International Corporation is an insurance holding company whose subsidiaries market, underwrite, and provide risk management services.  The Company provides services for a variety of coverages in the property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title, and life and health insurance fields.

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Old Republic Intl (ORI US)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Old Republic International Corporation: Specialty Insurance Strategy As A Vital Growth Tool!

Old Republic International (ORI) reported its second-quarter 2025 results showcasing steady growth and profitability despite challenges in...

Baptista Research

Old Republic International: Specialty Insurance Growth to Strongly Influence The Company's Financial Health & Stock Value!

Old Republic International Corporation's first-quarter 2025 financial results reflect robust growth and improved profitability across its key...

Baptista Research

Old Republic International: An Insight Into Its Capital Management Approach!

Old Republic International delivered a commendable performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, with consolidated pretax operating income up by 20%,...

Baptista Research

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