Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Look at the last 100 years, and things are not so different. War, large inflation and pandemics were things that happened periodically.</li><li>A lot of stocks that have run up are still trading like we will return to the pre 2020 status quo soon</li><li>I don’t think that is the case. So I adjusted my portfolio significantly, and considering further adjustments</li></ul>

Look at the last 100 years, and things are not so different. War, large inflation and pandemics were things that happened periodically.A lot of stocks that have run up are still trading like we will return to the pre 2020 status quo soonI don’t think that is the case. So I adjusted my portfolio significantly, and considering further adjustments

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Stocks Highlighted: WFC, COF, DFS, GS, JEF, RJF, LIN, ALB, AKZOY, OLN, CC, CDAY, RHI, MAN, TNET, ASGN, NSP, TBI, KELYA, BBSI, DHX, BGSF, AMN, and CCRN.Cyclical value areas are starting to play catch-up as interest rates show signs of bottoming -- all kickstarted by Friday's better-than-expected employment report. We see many actionable opportunities, particularly within the Financial and Materials Sectors, and also several retail stocks within Consumer Discretionary. As we noted last week, despite mixed signals from the market, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level which supports our overall constructive outlook.

Stocks Highlighted: WFC, COF, DFS, GS, JEF, RJF, LIN, ALB, AKZOY, OLN, CC, CDAY, RHI, MAN, TNET, ASGN, NSP, TBI, KELYA, BBSI, DHX, BGSF, AMN, and CCRN.Cyclical value areas are starting to play catch-up as interest rates show signs of bottoming -- all kickstarted by Friday's better-than-expected employment report. We see many actionable opportunities, particularly within the Financial and Materials Sectors, and also several retail stocks within Consumer Discretionary. As we noted last week, despite mixed signals from the market, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level which supports our overall constructive outlook.

Cyclical Value Areas Improving -- Add Exposure To Financials, Materials

Global Special Situations

Charles Nave

The tragic events in Orlando have many people in the USA and around the world asking a lot of questions. These are exactly the same questions asked every couple of months and it’s honestly tiring. How many of these incidents does it take for both sides of government to unite – independent of the NRA – and make a meaningful impact? The sad fact is, meaningful, impactful change is likely to never happen in the short term, medium term or long term (or I've concluded during my lifetime).  As hard as it is to say, these events create the ideal environment for gun demand, which is great for the likes of Sturm Ruger (RGR US) and Smith &amp; Wesson (SWHC US).

The tragic events in Orlando have many people in the USA and around the world asking a lot of questions. These are exactly the same questions asked every couple of months and it’s honestly tiring. How many of these incidents does it take for both sides of government to unite – independent of the NRA – and make a meaningful impact? The sad fact is, meaningful, impactful change is likely to never happen in the short term, medium term or long term (or I've concluded during my lifetime).  As hard as it is to say, these events create the ideal environment for gun demand, which is great for the likes of Sturm Ruger (RGR US) and Smith &amp; Wesson (SWHC US).

Mass Shootings Are (I'm Afraid) A Boon for Gun Producers

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

Event-Driven

A former Axiall executive told CTFN that the company has few options beyond the recent hostile bid from Westlake Chemical.  He said that Axiall’s board probably has a “magic number” that it would like Westlake to reach before the deal could ultimately turn friendly.

A former Axiall executive told CTFN that the company has few options beyond the recent hostile bid from Westlake Chemical.  He said that Axiall’s board probably has a “magic number” that it would like Westlake to reach before the deal could ultimately turn friendly.

Axiall Faces Limited Options as Westlake Closes In

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners</li><li>Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levels</li><li>Fed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentiment</li><li>Central bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria</li></ul>

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver minersSome goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levelsFed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentimentCentral bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

United States

Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition products. The Company manufactures and sells chlorine, caustic soda, sodium hydrosulfite, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, sodium chlorate, bleach products, and potassium hydroxide. Olin also manufactures products that include sporting ammunition, reloading components, small caliber military ammunition and industrial cartridges.

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Olin Corp (OLN US)

Cheapness still in cyclical names

You know how they say how the phrase “this time is different” is expensive? The problem with this phrase is, at what time scale do you measure the...

Turtles all the way down

Cyclical Value Areas Improving -- Add Exposure To Financials, Materials

Cyclical value areas are starting to play catch-up as interest rates show signs of bottoming. We see many actionable opportunities, particularly...

Vermilion Research

Mass Shootings Are (I'm Afraid) A Boon for Gun Producers

The tragic events in Orlando have many people in the USA and around the world asking a lot of questions. These are exactly the same questions asked...

Charles Nave

Axiall Faces Limited Options as Westlake Closes In

A former Axiall executive told CTFN that the company has few options beyond the recent hostile bid from Westlake Chemical. He said that Axiall’s...

CTFN

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just...

Kay Van-Petersen

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