Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. has reported a robust performance in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024, surpassing expectations with a notable increase in sales and earnings.</li><li>The company’s same-store sales grew by 5.8%, driven by an increase in both transaction volume and average basket size.</li><li>This growth was highlighted by strong performances in the room air and housewares departments, among others, benefiting from effective execution and favorable responses from customers to the company's value offerings.</li></ul>

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. has reported a robust performance in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024, surpassing expectations with a notable increase in sales and earnings.The company’s same-store sales grew by 5.8%, driven by an increase in both transaction volume and average basket size.This growth was highlighted by strong performances in the room air and housewares departments, among others, benefiting from effective execution and favorable responses from customers to the company's value offerings.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: How Are They Leveraging Industry Consolidation? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Ollie's Bargain Outlet recently discussed its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, presenting a detailed analysis of its operational performance and outlook.</li><li>During the presentation, the company highlighted several positives including a notable 49% increase in adjusted earnings per share, underpinned by better-than expected performances in comparable store sales, total revenue, gross margin, and expenses.</li><li>This robust performance underscores the company’s effective execution despite the ongoing economic pressures influencing consumer spending.</li></ul>

Ollie's Bargain Outlet recently discussed its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, presenting a detailed analysis of its operational performance and outlook.During the presentation, the company highlighted several positives including a notable 49% increase in adjusted earnings per share, underpinned by better-than expected performances in comparable store sales, total revenue, gross margin, and expenses.This robust performance underscores the company’s effective execution despite the ongoing economic pressures influencing consumer spending.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: How Is The Management Carrying Out Gross Margin Improvement through Supply Chain Optimization? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Ollie's Bargain Outlet showcased a robust performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, reflecting a strong execution of its business strategies amid challenging market conditions.</li><li>The company delivered an overall 11% increase in net sales, totaling $509 million, driven by new store growth and a 3% uptick in comparable store sales.</li><li>Adjusted earnings per share rose by 49% to $0.73, exceeding expectations.</li></ul>

Ollie's Bargain Outlet showcased a robust performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, reflecting a strong execution of its business strategies amid challenging market conditions.The company delivered an overall 11% increase in net sales, totaling $509 million, driven by new store growth and a 3% uptick in comparable store sales.Adjusted earnings per share rose by 49% to $0.73, exceeding expectations.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: Expansion of Store Network & 3 Pivotal Drivers

<ul><li>This is our first report on retail major, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. The company ended its fiscal year 2023 on a strong note, with robust growth recorded in the fourth quarter and across the fiscal year.</li><li>The company reported better-than-expected top and bottom line results for Q4, achieving a 3.9% increase in comparable store sales, its seventh consecutive quarter of positive comps.</li><li>Gross margin increased significantly by 290 basis points to 40.5%, driving a 46% increase in adjusted earnings per share.</li></ul>

This is our first report on retail major, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. The company ended its fiscal year 2023 on a strong note, with robust growth recorded in the fourth quarter and across the fiscal year.The company reported better-than-expected top and bottom line results for Q4, achieving a 3.9% increase in comparable store sales, its seventh consecutive quarter of positive comps.Gross margin increased significantly by 290 basis points to 40.5%, driving a 46% increase in adjusted earnings per share.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: Initiation of Coverage - 4 Critical Growth Drivers & 3 Major Challenges In Its Path! - Financial Forecasts

United States

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates a chain of retail stores that offers brand name products at discounted and closeout prices. The Company provides products, including housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, toys, and hardware.

Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI US)

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Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI US)

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: How Are They Leveraging Industry Consolidation? - Major Drivers

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. has reported a robust performance in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024, surpassing expectations...

Baptista Research

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: How Is The Management Carrying Out Gross Margin Improvement through Supply Chain Optimization? - Major Drivers

Ollie's Bargain Outlet recently discussed its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, presenting a detailed analysis of its...

Baptista Research

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: Expansion of Store Network & 3 Pivotal Drivers

Ollie's Bargain Outlet showcased a robust performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, reflecting a strong execution of its business...

Baptista Research

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings: Initiation of Coverage - 4 Critical Growth Drivers & 3 Major Challenges In Its Path! - Financial Forecasts

This is our first report on retail major, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. The company ended its fiscal year 2023 on a strong note, with...

Baptista Research

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