Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Auto &amp; Industrial Semi long boom / bust cycle started during Covid (peak demand) and is ending soon. Revenues declined by -20%. Operating Profits are depressed, down -50% from peak.   </li>
<li>Industry structure, high fragmentation, low transparency led to a protracted and steep bottom. But inventories remain high. The recovery will take time, probably no YoY revenue growth till 2026.   </li>
<li>Two big restructuring are underway, the sector is rationalizing. Lofty expectations of “structural growth” (EV, ADAS, green energy growth) hit the wall of a disappointing reality amplified by trade wars.</li>
</ul>


Auto &amp; Industrial Semi long boom / bust cycle started during Covid (peak demand) and is ending soon. Revenues declined by -20%. Operating Profits are depressed, down -50% from peak.   
Industry structure, high fragmentation, low transparency led to a protracted and steep bottom. But inventories remain high. The recovery will take time, probably no YoY revenue growth till 2026.   
Two big restructuring are underway, the sector is rationalizing. Lofty expectations of “structural growth” (EV, ADAS, green energy growth) hit the wall of a disappointing reality amplified by trade wars.


Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongodb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26655:1" rel="noopener">MongoDB (MDB US)</a> is forecasted to be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to an index weighting of lower than 0.1% on the last day of March and April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopify-inc-de74469e-4678-489b-9b50-a80a5790c5ef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25906:1" rel="noopener">Shopify (SHOP US)</a> is the forecasted replacement. The company became eligible following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebay-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1291:1" rel="noopener">eBay Inc (EBAY US)</a> are the main addition candidates for the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a> by mid-2025 and the December 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



MongoDB (MDB US) is forecasted to be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to an index weighting of lower than 0.1% on the last day of March and April.

Shopify (SHOP US) is the forecasted replacement. The company became eligible following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and eBay Inc (EBAY US) are the main addition candidates for the acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by mid-2025 and the December 2025 review.


MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.</li><li>What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.</li><li>Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.</li></ul>

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.

<ul><li>Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.</li><li>Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.</li><li>This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. </li></ul>

Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. 

<ul><li>The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.</li><li>Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.</li><li>Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.</li></ul>

The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

United States

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

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On Semiconductor (ON US)

Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....

Nicolas Baratte

MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

MDB is set to be removed from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to its low index weighting, with SHOP expected to replace it. ALNY and EBAY are potential...

Dimitris Ioannidis

MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change. What changed was that we are seeing a very large...

Fabricated Knowledge

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

​Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....

Nicolas Baratte

MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

MDB is set to be removed from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to its low index weighting, with SHOP expected to replace it. ALNY and EBAY are potential...

Dimitris Ioannidis

MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change. What changed was that we are seeing a very large...

Fabricated Knowledge

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....