'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/728/original/2019-03-02_20-40-55.png?1551526871" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80728"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the strongest in over two years, and much of this 'boom' is flowing into risk assets. Large-scale repatriation of offshore funds by US companies has also helped boost the US dollar against the yen. The Market Composite responded by rising 2.3% over the last two weeks, although only by 1% in US dollar terms.WEAK MACRO - Net exports and higher inventories offset private investment and consumption during the fourth quarter, resulting in flat GDP growth year-on-year. January industrial production fell to the lowest level in 30 months, and, with the manufacturing PMI nearing 50, the prospect is for further weakness this quarter. Inventories continue to rise and, in North Asia, to levels last seen in 2005. Combined with the sharp fall in exports in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, export pricing in back in deflationary territory, putting further upward pressure on real interest rates.  Meanwhile, January retail sales saw the largest month-on-month decline in over three years as department stores saw fewer Chinese tourists over the New Year.  Equity markets are living on 'borrowed time'.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/722/original/2019-03-02_18-02-59.png?1551517390" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80722"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/724/original/2019-03-02_18-07-56.png?1551517689" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80724"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/729/original/2019-03-02_20-41-51.png?1551526925" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80729"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>HOLD FOR NOW - This bear market rally is two months old and is maturing. The Value Traded ratio is below trend again, the RSI is neutral, and the Toraku is signalling caution. We expect another month of liquidity/weak Yen-driven strength before the economic realities begin to prevail.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10020:1">Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20269" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20269:1">Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8431" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8431:1">Parco (8251 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4489" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14674" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14674:1">Nichias (5393 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27043" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1">Raksul (4384 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10503" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1">Daito Trust (1878 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14502" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>.


Source: Japan Analytics
LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the strongest in over two years, and much of this 'boom' is flowing into risk assets. Large-scale repatriation of offshore funds by US companies has also helped boost the US dollar against the yen. The Market Composite responded by rising 2.3% over the last two weeks, although only by 1% in US dollar terms.WEAK MACRO - Net exports and higher inventories offset private investment and consumption during the fourth quarter, resulting in flat GDP growth year-on-year. January industrial production fell to the lowest level in 30 months, and, with the manufacturing PMI nearing 50, the prospect is for further weakness this quarter. Inventories continue to rise and, in North Asia, to levels last seen in 2005. Combined with the sharp fall in exports in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, export pricing in back in deflationary territory, putting further upward pressure on real interest rates.  Meanwhile, January retail sales saw the largest month-on-month decline in over three years as department stores saw fewer Chinese tourists over the New Year.  Equity markets are living on 'borrowed time'.  Source: Japan AnalyticsHOLD FOR NOW - This bear market rally is two months old and is maturing. The Value Traded ratio is below trend again, the RSI is neutral, and the Toraku is signalling caution. We expect another month of liquidity/weak Yen-driven strength before the economic realities begin to prevail.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP), Parco (8251 JP), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), Nichias (5393 JP), Raksul (4384 JP), Daito Trust (1878 JP), and Benefit One (2412 JP).   

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Liquidity Rules

Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japanese government recently announced its decision to initiate an ad-hoc price reduction of ~4.35%, to be levied in October 2019, this will be in addition to the scheduled biennial price revisions (<a href="https://pj.jiho.jp/article/239057" target="_blank">source</a>).</li>
<li>The October 2019 scheduled price cuts will have nominal overall impact; however, we highlight a few companies that are relatively more vulnerable to ongoing price reforms.</li>
<li>
Mitsubishi Tanabe, Taisho, Santen, Kaken, Kyorin and Kissei generate &gt;50% of revenue from the domestic market and are projected to continue to do so over next 3-5 years.</li>
<li>Furthermore, the contribution from long listed (LL) drugs is much higher for the above-mentioned companies, which makes them relatively vulnerable to ongoing price reforms (price cuts for LL drugs are much higher than the average).</li>
<li>On the other hand, Ono, KHK and Nippon Shinyaku, despite a high proportion of domestic revenue (as a % of total revenue), have only limited contribution from LL drugs.</li>
<li>Ono’s Opdivo, however, will continue to face market expansion led special price cuts going forward.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/794/original/Domestic%20sales%20as%20a%20%25%20of%20total%20sales.PNG?1545456784" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73794"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/796/original/LL%20as%20a%20%25%20of%20Domestic.PNG?1545456892" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73796"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Company data, Pathology Associates research</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">* Companies with financial year ending December, Taisho domestic pharma includes OTC sales, N Kayaku domestic pharma sales includes Generics and Biosimilar sales</div>


The Japanese government recently announced its decision to initiate an ad-hoc price reduction of ~4.35%, to be levied in October 2019, this will be in addition to the scheduled biennial price revisions (source).
The October 2019 scheduled price cuts will have nominal overall impact; however, we highlight a few companies that are relatively more vulnerable to ongoing price reforms.

Mitsubishi Tanabe, Taisho, Santen, Kaken, Kyorin and Kissei generate &gt;50% of revenue from the domestic market and are projected to continue to do so over next 3-5 years.
Furthermore, the contribution from long listed (LL) drugs is much higher for the above-mentioned companies, which makes them relatively vulnerable to ongoing price reforms (price cuts for LL drugs are much higher than the average).
On the other hand, Ono, KHK and Nippon Shinyaku, despite a high proportion of domestic revenue (as a % of total revenue), have only limited contribution from LL drugs.
Ono’s Opdivo, however, will continue to face market expansion led special price cuts going forward.
Source: Company data, Pathology Associates research* Companies with financial year ending December, Taisho domestic pharma includes OTC sales, N Kayaku domestic pharma sales includes Generics and Biosimilar sales

Japan Pharma - Domestic Market and Long Listed Drug Exposure

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13076" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13076:1">Gni Group Ltd (2160 JP)</a> is our high risk-high return pick, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6311" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6311:1">Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP)</a>  is a contrarian call in anticipation of value accretive utilization of cash and Eq. (~40% of market cap.)</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> continues to remain our favourite pick from a medium to long term investment perspective</li>
<li>Rest are event / catalyst driven trading ideas... (see attachment)</li>
</ul>


While Gni Group Ltd (2160 JP) is our high risk-high return pick, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP)  is a contrarian call in anticipation of value accretive utilization of cash and Eq. (~40% of market cap.)

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) continues to remain our favourite pick from a medium to long term investment perspective
Rest are event / catalyst driven trading ideas... (see attachment)


THANKSGIVING RALLY - Japan's equity markets have recovered by 2.4% since 16th November and are now 5% above the October 29th low, but the market composite still needs to break above the previous rally-high of 9th November for the rally to be sustained. In US$ terms the recovery has been more muted, and the market is 9% below the October high and US$1 trillion or 14.5% down from January 23rd. Relative Strength has risen to the highest point since October 26th and suggests a short-term peak is nearing and the market has yet to exit from the 'Death Cross'.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/846/original/2018-12-02_07-34-53.png?1543703710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71846"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/847/original/2018-12-02_07-49-25.png?1543704574" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71847"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/071/848/original/2018-12-02_07-54-12.png?1543704863" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="71848"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<div class="content-highlight">
OUTLOOK - Japanese equities are attractively priced relative to trailing earnings. However, the market is in the process of discounting the end of the current eight-quarter-long upcycle. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to be slowing the rate of an intended tapering of its ultra-loose monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve is, at least verbally, tempering the pace of its quantitative tightening. As a result, the USD/JPY exchange rate should continue to weaken, as has been the case in recent weeks, although other cross-rates will be supportive of corporate earnings. One-quarter of market operating income comes from companies in the auto and telecommunications sectors and are under threat from global and local 'forces', respectively. A further 15% of operating profits are attributed to financial sectors and cannot be expected to rise while under the 'yolk' of the BoJ's 'ZIRP' policies. Aside from the many stock-specific investments that are on offer in Japan, the market overall should remain underweighted in global portfolios.  
</div>
In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2287" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/753" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a>.

THANKSGIVING RALLY - Japan's equity markets have recovered by 2.4% since 16th November and are now 5% above the October 29th low, but the market composite still needs to break above the previous rally-high of 9th November for the rally to be sustained. In US$ terms the recovery has been more muted, and the market is 9% below the October high and US$1 trillion or 14.5% down from January 23rd. Relative Strength has risen to the highest point since October 26th and suggests a short-term peak is nearing and the market has yet to exit from the 'Death Cross'.



Source: Japan Analytics

OUTLOOK - Japanese equities are attractively priced relative to trailing earnings. However, the market is in the process of discounting the end of the current eight-quarter-long upcycle. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to be slowing the rate of an intended tapering of its ultra-loose monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve is, at least verbally, tempering the pace of its quantitative tightening. As a result, the USD/JPY exchange rate should continue to weaken, as has been the case in recent weeks, although other cross-rates will be supportive of corporate earnings. One-quarter of market operating income comes from companies in the auto and telecommunications sectors and are under threat from global and local 'forces', respectively. A further 15% of operating profits are attributed to financial sectors and cannot be expected to rise while under the 'yolk' of the BoJ's 'ZIRP' policies. Aside from the many stock-specific investments that are on offer in Japan, the market overall should remain underweighted in global portfolios.  

In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on Pola Orbis (4927 JP) and Kyocera (6971 JP).

Japan: Fortnightly Update - Thanksgiving Rally

Equity Bottom-Up

Key highlights<ul>
<li>Brisk Opdivo domestic (+12% to ¥45.4b) and overseas (estimated royalty of ~¥28b, up 63% y-o-y) sales led robust topline growth of 19% (to ¥144b) which more than compensated for gross margin deterioration and a marginal increase in SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses.</li>
<li>As a result, Core EBIT and EPS grew 32% and 38% to ¥35b and ¥56 / share respectively</li>
<li>The company revised FY18 sales guidance by +1.7% to ¥280b, leading to almost proportionate upwards revision in Reported EBIT and EPS</li>
</ul>

Key highlights
Brisk Opdivo domestic (+12% to ¥45.4b) and overseas (estimated royalty of ~¥28b, up 63% y-o-y) sales led robust topline growth of 19% (to ¥144b) which more than compensated for gross margin deterioration and a marginal increase in SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses.
As a result, Core EBIT and EPS grew 32% and 38% to ¥35b and ¥56 / share respectively
The company revised FY18 sales guidance by +1.7% to ¥280b, leading to almost proportionate upwards revision in Reported EBIT and EPS


Ono 1H FY18 (YE Mar'19) Results - First Glance

Japan

ONO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company mainly researches and develops prescription drugs.

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Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Liquidity Rules

LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Pharma - Domestic Market and Long Listed Drug Exposure

The Japanese government recently announced its decision to initiate an ad-hoc price reduction of ~4.35%, to be levied in October 2019, this will...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Japan Pharma - Top Picks

While Gni Group Ltd (2160 JP) is our high risk-high return pick, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP) is a contrarian call in anticipation of value...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Japan: Fortnightly Update - Thanksgiving Rally

THANKSGIVING RALLY - Japan's equity markets have recovered by 2.4% since 16th November and are now 5% above the October 29th low, but the market...

Campbell Gunn

Ono 1H FY18 (YE Mar'19) Results - First Glance

Key highlights Brisk Opdivo domestic (+12% to ¥45.4b) and overseas (estimated royalty of ~¥28b, up 63% y-o-y) sales led robust topline growth of...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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