Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyowa-kirin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18055:1" rel="noopener">Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) </a>announced that ziftomenib is now commercially available in the U.S. Company will be eligible for 50% profit sharing from drug sales in the U.S.</li>
<li>Rocatinlimab, under Phase 3 trials, represents a potentially novel upstream approach for the management of mild to severe atopic dermatitis. It is also undergoing Phase 3 trials for Prurigo nodularis.</li>
<li>2026 will be an inflection point. Ziftomenib results will slowly fall in place. Positive results of rocatinlimab and new manufacturing facilities has potential to play out in long term.</li>
</ul>



Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) announced that ziftomenib is now commercially available in the U.S. Company will be eligible for 50% profit sharing from drug sales in the U.S.
Rocatinlimab, under Phase 3 trials, represents a potentially novel upstream approach for the management of mild to severe atopic dermatitis. It is also undergoing Phase 3 trials for Prurigo nodularis.
2026 will be an inflection point. Ziftomenib results will slowly fall in place. Positive results of rocatinlimab and new manufacturing facilities has potential to play out in long term.


Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Ziftomenib Approval and Commercialization A Positive, What Lies Ahead?

<ul>
<li>During Q1FY26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a>  reported revenue of ¥127.5B, an increase of 8% YoY. Opdivo witnessed 8% decrease in revenue to ¥29.4B mainly due to increased competition.  </li>
<li>Opdivo is facing competition from Keytruda. Ono guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.</li>
<li>In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.</li>
</ul>


During Q1FY26, Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)  reported revenue of ¥127.5B, an increase of 8% YoY. Opdivo witnessed 8% decrease in revenue to ¥29.4B mainly due to increased competition.  
Opdivo is facing competition from Keytruda. Ono guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.
In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.


Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a> guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.</li>
<li>Opdivo in combination with Yervoy (from Bristol Myers Squibb) was approved in Europe, US, South Korea, and Japan for the first-line treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma.</li>
<li>In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.</li>
</ul>



Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.
Opdivo in combination with Yervoy (from Bristol Myers Squibb) was approved in Europe, US, South Korea, and Japan for the first-line treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma.
In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Label Expansion Helps, But Long-Term Growth Momentum Calls for More

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a> is reporting decelerating revenue from its flagship drug, Opdivo. During H1FY25, domestic revenue from Opdivo decreased 17% YoY to ¥62.6B.</li>
<li>Opdivo will start to lose patent protection starting from 2028. Prolific commercialization of these new drugs will remain crucial for Ono riding the patent cliff successfully.</li>
<li>Ono shares plunged 36% over the last one year to trade at attractive valuation. In absence of any near-term growth catalyst, the shares are not expected to see much upside.</li>
</ul>



Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) is reporting decelerating revenue from its flagship drug, Opdivo. During H1FY25, domestic revenue from Opdivo decreased 17% YoY to ¥62.6B.
Opdivo will start to lose patent protection starting from 2028. Prolific commercialization of these new drugs will remain crucial for Ono riding the patent cliff successfully.
Ono shares plunged 36% over the last one year to trade at attractive valuation. In absence of any near-term growth catalyst, the shares are not expected to see much upside.


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Struggle Continues with Opdivo; Competition and Price Cuts Loom Large

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Japan

ONO PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company mainly researches and develops prescription drugs.

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Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)

Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Ziftomenib Approval and Commercialization A Positive, What Lies Ahead?

Kyowa Kirin's ziftomenib is now commercially available in the U.S. Rocatinlimab shows promise for atopic dermatitis and Prurigo nodularis in Phase...

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

Ono Pharmaceutical's Q1FY26 revenue increased 8% YoY. Opdivo revenue decreased 8% YoY due to competition. Despite indication expansion, concerns...

Tina Banerjee