Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Potentia has returned with an improved three-part offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>. The base offer of A$2.17 is 0.9% higher than Alludo’s A$2.15 offer. </li>
<li>The offer could rise to A$2.20 or A$2.25 per share based on hitting additional conditions. There is a clear path for the final offer to reach A$2.20 per share. </li>
<li>A A$2.25 per share offer is unlikely due to the onerous 25% scrip acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread to the likely final A$2.20 offer is 0.5%.</li>
</ul>


Potentia has returned with an improved three-part offer for Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU). The base offer of A$2.17 is 0.9% higher than Alludo’s A$2.15 offer. 
The offer could rise to A$2.20 or A$2.25 per share based on hitting additional conditions. There is a clear path for the final offer to reach A$2.20 per share. 
A A$2.25 per share offer is unlikely due to the onerous 25% scrip acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread to the likely final A$2.20 offer is 0.5%.


Nitro (NTO AU): Potentia Comes Good with a Three-Part Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a> has finally granted Potentia due diligence access until 22 February. Subject to satisfactory due diligence, Potentia could increase its offer from A$2.00 to A$2.20-2.30 per share.</li>
<li>Alludo’s A$2.15 off-market takeover offer is its best and final offer. Alludo’s offer is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (currently at 12.53%) and closes on 3 March.</li>
<li>Potentia’s dogged pursuit despite the Board's stonewalling suggests a desire to get a deal done. At the last close, the gross spread to Potentia’s potential offer is 2.3% to 7.0%.</li>
</ul>



Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has finally granted Potentia due diligence access until 22 February. Subject to satisfactory due diligence, Potentia could increase its offer from A$2.00 to A$2.20-2.30 per share.
Alludo’s A$2.15 off-market takeover offer is its best and final offer. Alludo’s offer is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition (currently at 12.53%) and closes on 3 March.
Potentia’s dogged pursuit despite the Board's stonewalling suggests a desire to get a deal done. At the last close, the gross spread to Potentia’s potential offer is 2.3% to 7.0%.


Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Finally Secures Due Diligence

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a> has received a revised Potentia off-market takeover offer at A$2.00 per share, an 11.1% premium to its previous offer and in line with Alludo’s offer.</li>
<li>By bumping its offer, adding a scrip alternative and signalling a potentially higher price on due diligence access, Potentia has ramped up the pressure on the Board.</li>
<li>Potentia/Alludo offer remains at the low end of the IE’s valuation range. Alludo would have anticipated this move and likely will have factored in the need to raise its offer.</li>
</ul>



Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has received a revised Potentia off-market takeover offer at A$2.00 per share, an 11.1% premium to its previous offer and in line with Alludo’s offer.
By bumping its offer, adding a scrip alternative and signalling a potentially higher price on due diligence access, Potentia has ramped up the pressure on the Board.
Potentia/Alludo offer remains at the low end of the IE’s valuation range. Alludo would have anticipated this move and likely will have factored in the need to raise its offer.


Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Raises to A$2.00 as the Battle Heats Up

Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Micro Focus International  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>After banging the drum on Micro Focus for several years, a suitor has arrived, with Canadian software firm OpenText offering to acquire the company for an Enterprise Value of $6b or $6.30 (532p)/share.</li><li>I have mixed emotions here and will try to sum up my thinking since the deal was announced.</li><li>Of course, it’s hard to be upset when one of your holdings doubles overnight.</li></ul>

After banging the drum on Micro Focus for several years, a suitor has arrived, with Canadian software firm OpenText offering to acquire the company for an Enterprise Value of $6b or $6.30 (532p)/share.I have mixed emotions here and will try to sum up my thinking since the deal was announced.Of course, it’s hard to be upset when one of your holdings doubles overnight.

Canada

Open Text Corporation provides intranet, extranet, and corporate portal solutions to organizations located throughout the world.  The Company's flagship product, Livelink is an off-the-shelf, enterprise scalable, collaborative application for companies that want to leverage their information and resources through intranets.

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Open Text Corp (OTEX CN)

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

Nitro (NTO AU): Potentia Comes Good with a Three-Part Offer

The base offer of A$2.17 could rise to A$2.20 or A$2.25 per share based on hitting additional conditions. There is a clear path for the final offer...

Arun George

Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Finally Secures Due Diligence

Potentia’s dogged pursuit despite the Board's stonewalling suggests a desire to get a deal done. At the last close, the gross spread to Potentia’s...

Arun George

Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Raises to A$2.00 as the Battle Heats Up

The shares are trading through Potentia’s improved terms. Alludo has the benefit of synergies and KKR’s ownership to support a higher bid. Alludo...

Arun George

The Micro Focus Buy-Out: Vindication?

After banging the drum on Micro Focus for several years, a suitor has arrived, with Canadian software firm OpenText offering to acquire the company

Superfluous Value

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