Covering the Companies Most Desks Won't, Thracian Research

Thracian Research

Covering the Companies Most Desks Won't

Thracian Research is an independent equity research firm covering the companies most desks won't: under-followed small- and mid-caps, post-spinoff, and contested, high-leverage situations. We publish full-length, two-sided research notes — typically 8,000–15,000 words with proprietary models, reverse-DCF analysis, scenario tables, and explicit ratings — built bottom-up from primary filings rather than borrowed consensus.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>With the stockholder vote passed and Sun Pharma’s financing syndicated, the equity is no longer a claim on a pharmaceutical business but on a $14.00 cash payment; the question is whether a 3.9% spread pays for a 44% tail.</li><li>Organon trades as a merger stub against Sun Pharma’s $14.00 all-cash offer.</li><li>The decisive fact is that the heavy conditions are behind it: stockholders approved the deal on 23 July, the HSR notification was filed on 21 May, and the acquisition financing has been fully syndicated.</li></ul>

With the stockholder vote passed and Sun Pharma’s financing syndicated, the equity is no longer a claim on a pharmaceutical business but on a $14.00 cash payment; the question is whether a 3.9% spread pays for a 44% tail.Organon trades as a merger stub against Sun Pharma’s $14.00 all-cash offer.The decisive fact is that the heavy conditions are behind it: stockholders approved the deal on 23 July, the HSR notification was filed on 21 May, and the acquisition financing has been fully syndicated.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Organon has suddenly moved from a largely ignored pharmaceutical spin-off to one of the market’s most closely watched takeover stories after reports indicated that Sun Pharma was nearing a binding bid that could value the company at roughly $12 billion on an enterprise basis.</li><li>That headline alone has obvious appeal, especially after the stock’s sharp rally on the news, but the more revealing question sits beneath the takeover chatter.</li><li>Why did it take acquisition speculation for investors to revisit the value of a company that already generated about $6.2 billion in 2025 revenue, around $1.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and roughly $960 million in free cash flow before one-time costs?</li></ul>

Organon has suddenly moved from a largely ignored pharmaceutical spin-off to one of the market’s most closely watched takeover stories after reports indicated that Sun Pharma was nearing a binding bid that could value the company at roughly $12 billion on an enterprise basis.That headline alone has obvious appeal, especially after the stock’s sharp rally on the news, but the more revealing question sits beneath the takeover chatter.Why did it take acquisition speculation for investors to revisit the value of a company that already generated about $6.2 billion in 2025 revenue, around $1.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and roughly $960 million in free cash flow before one-time costs?

Organon’s Sudden Surge: Did The Market Miss A Billion-Dollar Cash Flow Machine?

<ul><li>Organon & Co. surged over 6.5% following media reports suggesting that India's largest pharmaceutical company, Sun Pharmaceutical, has made a non-binding offer to acquire the U.S.-based healthcare firm.</li><li>According to The Economic Times, Sun Pharma has secured bridge loan financing in the range of $10–$14 billion to back a potential all-cash transaction.</li><li>The due diligence phase is expected to begin shortly, with a binding offer anticipated thereafter.</li></ul>

Organon & Co. surged over 6.5% following media reports suggesting that India's largest pharmaceutical company, Sun Pharmaceutical, has made a non-binding offer to acquire the U.S.-based healthcare firm.According to The Economic Times, Sun Pharma has secured bridge loan financing in the range of $10–$14 billion to back a potential all-cash transaction.The due diligence phase is expected to begin shortly, with a binding offer anticipated thereafter.

Organon Lures Sun Pharma With Low Valuation & Global Reach—What’s Next?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NMPA accepted Simcere’s resubmitted NDA for Rademikibart for the treatment of atopic dermatitis. FDA has granted Priority Review to Beigene’s indication expansion application for Tevimra in first-line gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma.</li>
<li>FDA has accepted Taiho Pharmaceutical’s NDA for NSCLC drug candidate zipalertinib. Kyowa Kirin and Kura Oncology initiated Japanese Phase 2 registrational clinical trial studying ziftomenib, for acute myeloid leukemia.</li>
<li>Sun Pharmaceutical is acquiring Organon for $14 per share in an all‑cash transaction with an enterprise valuation of $12B. The transaction is expected to close in early 2027.</li>
</ul>


NMPA accepted Simcere’s resubmitted NDA for Rademikibart for the treatment of atopic dermatitis. FDA has granted Priority Review to Beigene’s indication expansion application for Tevimra in first-line gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma.
FDA has accepted Taiho Pharmaceutical’s NDA for NSCLC drug candidate zipalertinib. Kyowa Kirin and Kura Oncology initiated Japanese Phase 2 registrational clinical trial studying ziftomenib, for acute myeloid leukemia.
Sun Pharmaceutical is acquiring Organon for $14 per share in an all‑cash transaction with an enterprise valuation of $12B. The transaction is expected to close in early 2027.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 3) – Simcere, Beigene, Otsuka, Kyowa Kirin, Sun Pharma

<ul>
<li>Leads Biolabs initiated Phase 2 clinical study evaluating LBL-024 for the first-line treatment of HCC. Henlius Biotech got FDA approval for Poherdy, as the first interchangeable biosimilar to Roche’s Perjeta.</li>
<li>Otsuka announced positive Phase 3 interim analysis of sibeprenlimab for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. ABL Bio signed technology transfer and joint R&amp;D agreement with Eli Lilly for upfront payment of $40M.</li>
<li>Boryung Pharmaceutical began construction to double its oral penicillin production capacity. Eubiologics published positive result from Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating EuTYPH-C, a typhoid conjugate vaccine.</li>
</ul>


Leads Biolabs initiated Phase 2 clinical study evaluating LBL-024 for the first-line treatment of HCC. Henlius Biotech got FDA approval for Poherdy, as the first interchangeable biosimilar to Roche’s Perjeta.
Otsuka announced positive Phase 3 interim analysis of sibeprenlimab for immunoglobulin A nephropathy. ABL Bio signed technology transfer and joint R&amp;D agreement with Eli Lilly for upfront payment of $40M.
Boryung Pharmaceutical began construction to double its oral penicillin production capacity. Eubiologics published positive result from Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating EuTYPH-C, a typhoid conjugate vaccine.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 16) – Leads Bio, Henlius Bio, Otsuka, ABL Bio, Boryung, Eubiologics

United States

Organon & Co. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops and produces medicines and other products across a range of areas including reproductive health, heart disease, dermatology, allergies, and asthma. Organon & Co serves customers worldwide.

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Organon & (OGN US)

Organon & Co. (OGN)

Company deep dive With the stockholder vote passed and Sun Pharma’s financing syndicated, the equity is no longer a claim on a pharmaceutical...

Thracian Research

Organon’s Sudden Surge: Did The Market Miss A Billion-Dollar Cash Flow Machine?

Organon has suddenly moved from a largely ignored pharmaceutical spin-off to one of the market’s most closely watched takeover stories after...

Baptista Research

Organon Lures Sun Pharma With Low Valuation & Global Reach—What’s Next?

Organon & Co. surged over 6.5% following media reports suggesting that India's largest pharmaceutical company, Sun Pharmaceutical, has made a...

Baptista Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (May 3) – Simcere, Beigene, Otsuka, Kyowa Kirin, Sun Pharma

NMPA accepted Simcere’s resubmitted NDA for Rademikibart. Beigene got FDA’s priority review for label expansion of Tevimra. Sun Pharma is acquiring...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 16) – Leads Bio, Henlius Bio, Otsuka, ABL Bio, Boryung, Eubiologics

Henlius got FDA approval for Perjeta biosimilar. Otsuka reports positive Phase 3 trial result for sibepernlimab. ABL Bio signed deal with Lilly....

Tina Banerjee

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