Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years</li>
<li>A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted</li>
<li>Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025</li>
</ul>


November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years
A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted
Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>, while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. </li>
<li>Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> are the two potential best bets.</li>
</ul>


With the US interest rate heading lower, the HSI constituent companies with the highest gearing levels are the prime beneficiaries as their interest burden will lessen.

Sands China (1928 HK), while it has the highest leverage, is not a near-term gain. This is because its debt structure with 100% fixed rate borrowings. 
Based on the gearing level, floating rate proportion, and YTD performance, New World Development (17 HK) and Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) are the two potential best bets.


HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price momentum softened dramatically in October, mirroring steep declines in H221, FY22</li>
<li>We believe price momentum, rather than earnings, drives medium-term share performance</li>
<li>Reaction to ZIM's stellar Q324 results &amp; guidance raise suggests more downside ahead</li>
</ul>


Price momentum softened dramatically in October, mirroring steep declines in H221, FY22
We believe price momentum, rather than earnings, drives medium-term share performance
Reaction to ZIM's stellar Q324 results &amp; guidance raise suggests more downside ahead


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Price Momentum Softens | CMP-ZIM L/S Pair Idea (November 2024)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.</li>
<li>Short interest is especially large in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotruk-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19764:1" rel="noopener">Sinotruk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a> and inclusion could set off some short covering.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 </li>
<li>Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash</li>
<li>We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more</li>
</ul>


Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 
Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash
We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more


TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

Hong Kong

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

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Orient Overseas International (316 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

Container rates continued to soften in November, and 2024's Q4 seasonal decline from the Summer peak has been the second-steepest in the past 12...

Tracking Traffic

HK Strategy: Rate Cut Beneficiaries - Fixed & Floating Rate Debt Analysis

With the Fed hinting at a slower rate cut path, the beneficiaries mentioned in this Insight will turn to suffer more. The names with the highest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Price Momentum Softens | CMP-ZIM L/S Pair Idea (November 2024)

Container price momentum faltered again in October, and we believe spot rates will continue to moderate near-term. Negative reaction to ZIM's...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

Brian Freitas

TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

In this insight we offer some quick updates on regional container carrier TS Lines, which successfully listed its shares in Hong Kong on November 1.

Tracking Traffic

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