Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe price momentum for global container carriers is unlikely to improve from here</li>
<li>As price momentum falters, carriers' shares could continue to give back big gains</li>
<li>We would look for near-term opportunities to reduce or eliminate exposure to sector</li>
</ul>


We believe price momentum for global container carriers is unlikely to improve from here
As price momentum falters, carriers' shares could continue to give back big gains
We would look for near-term opportunities to reduce or eliminate exposure to sector


Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March</li>
<li>In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher</li>
<li>If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March
In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher
If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

<ul>
<li>Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st</li>
<li>But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months</li>
<li>Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike</li>
</ul>


Workers at US East/Gulf Coast ports could strike without new contract by Oct 1st
But data suggest importers have been boosting inventory over past few months
Although US West Coast port workers support ILA, they're unlikely to strike


A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

<ul>
<li>July outbound travel (and seat capacity) fnally approached pre-Covid19 levels</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also showed modest Y/Y improvement in July </li>
<li>We still like Trip.com on improving profitability, BUY with US$55 target</li>
</ul>


July outbound travel (and seat capacity) fnally approached pre-Covid19 levels
Domestic air travel demand also showed modest Y/Y improvement in July 
We still like Trip.com on improving profitability, BUY with US$55 target


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

<ul>
<li>Backed by strong US demand, spot container rates remain very firm</li>
<li>On top of higher average freight rates, carriers now enjoying lower fuel prices</li>
<li>Dispersion of returns on carrier shares is eye-opening, only a few performed</li>
</ul>


Backed by strong US demand, spot container rates remain very firm
On top of higher average freight rates, carriers now enjoying lower fuel prices
Dispersion of returns on carrier shares is eye-opening, only a few performed


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Up | Transpac Volume Up | Fuel Price Down (August 2024)

Hong Kong

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

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Orient Overseas International (316 HK)

Charts & Context | From Here, What Can Get Better for Container Carriers? | Reduce Sector Exposure

We believe container rates will continue to moderate in the near-term, and that in the absence of improving rates investors should look to reduce...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

We believe the strong year-to-date price momentum enjoyed by most container carriers may moderate in Q4, which would make it difficult for some of...

Tracking Traffic

A Potential October Strike at US East & Gulf Coast Container Ports Is Unlikely to Be Impactful

Although workers at US East and Gulf Coast ports could strike in October, for several reasons we believe the impact of a strike will be quite limited.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Activity Approaches Pre-Covid Levels | (August 2024)

July data shows continuing improvement in Chinese outbound and domestic travel activity. We still like shares of Trip.com, and retain our BUY...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Up | Transpac Volume Up | Fuel Price Down (August 2024)

Container shipping pricing momentum remained positive in July, and fuel prices have declined markedly over the past month.

Tracking Traffic

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