Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>ORI’s 2Q21 net profit was at Bt852m (+21%YoY, +3%QoQ), the highest level in six quarters. The 1H21 result was in-line with our expectation.</strong></p><div>• Excluding gains from share premium on two JV projects, the operating profit was at Bt609m (-14%YoY, -13%QoQ) caused by lower transfer activities due to ORI has only two new completed construction projects valued Bt1.5bn.</div><div></div><div>• We foresee 2H21 core earnings to increase 14%HoH from 1H21 supported by higher transfer activities from three new completed construction projects valued Bt17.8bn (mostly from Park Origin Thonglor) and backlog from low-rise projects valued Bt5.7bn.</div><div></div><div>• We still like this stock on the back of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt35bn that will support 2021-23 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 6%-7% in 2021-22E: and (4) ORI diversifies its portfolio to more on recurring income assets.</div><div></div><div>We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt10.3 based on 7.5xPE’22E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector. Our target price has excluded upside from new business.</div>

ORI’s 2Q21 net profit was at Bt852m (+21%YoY, +3%QoQ), the highest level in six quarters. The 1H21 result was in-line with our expectation.• Excluding gains from share premium on two JV projects, the operating profit was at Bt609m (-14%YoY, -13%QoQ) caused by lower transfer activities due to ORI has only two new completed construction projects valued Bt1.5bn.• We foresee 2H21 core earnings to increase 14%HoH from 1H21 supported by higher transfer activities from three new completed construction projects valued Bt17.8bn (mostly from Park Origin Thonglor) and backlog from low-rise projects valued Bt5.7bn.• We still like this stock on the back of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt35bn that will support 2021-23 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 6%-7% in 2021-22E: and (4) ORI diversifies its portfolio to more on recurring income assets.We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt10.3 based on 7.5xPE’22E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector. Our target price has excluded upside from new business.

ORI: Solid 2Q21 Earnings Supported by Gains from Share Premiums

<p><strong>We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt10.3 based on 7.5xPE’22E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector. Our target price has excluded upside from new business.</strong></p><div>• ORI reported 2Q21 presales of Bt8bn (+22%YoY, +4.2%QoQ) supported by ready to move projects and three new projects launched in 2Q21 among 3rd wave of COVID-19 which is better than market expectation. Moreover, we foresee presales momentum to speed up in 2H21 through aggressive launch of new 14 projects worth Bt12bn in 2H21 up from six projects launch worth Bt8bn in 1H21. (1H21 ORI’s presales accounted for 54% of the management target in 2021)</div><div>
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</div><p><strong>We still like this stock on the back of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt35bn that will support 2021-23 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 6%-7% in 2021-22E: and (4) ORI diversifies its portfolio to more on recurring income assets.</strong></p>

We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt10.3 based on 7.5xPE’22E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector. Our target price has excluded upside from new business.• ORI reported 2Q21 presales of Bt8bn (+22%YoY, +4.2%QoQ) supported by ready to move projects and three new projects launched in 2Q21 among 3rd wave of COVID-19 which is better than market expectation. Moreover, we foresee presales momentum to speed up in 2H21 through aggressive launch of new 14 projects worth Bt12bn in 2H21 up from six projects launch worth Bt8bn in 1H21. (1H21 ORI’s presales accounted for 54% of the management target in 2021)
 
We still like this stock on the back of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt35bn that will support 2021-23 earnings recovery; (2) Solid presales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of 6%-7% in 2021-22E: and (4) ORI diversifies its portfolio to more on recurring income assets.

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.</p>

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 33

<p><strong>We maintain BUY rating and roll forward target price to 2022 of Bt10.3 (Previous TPpresales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of : Bt9.2) based on 7.5xPE’22E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector. Our target price is excluding new business.</strong></p><div>• ORI presales continues to grow MoM among 3rd wave COVID-19, better than market expectation. Moreover, we foresee presales momentum to speed up in 2H21 through aggressive launch of new 14 projects worth Bt12bn in 2H21 up from six projects launch worth Bt8bn in 1H21. 1Q21 ORI’s presales accounted for 26% of the management target in 2021.</div><div></div><div>• ORI diversifies income portfolio to more recurring income. The management target revenue contribution from new businesses at 10% of total revenue in the next three years. We believe that ORI will re-rate PER valuation following the progression of new businesses.</div><div>
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</div><p><strong>We still like this stock on the backs of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt35bn to back 2021-23 earnings recovery; (2) Solid 6%-7% in 2021-22E.</strong></p><p></p><h3>Result summary</h3><div>
<div>• ORI’s 1Q21 net profit was Bt825m (+39%YoY, +29%QoQ), came out better than our expectation and accounted for 26% of 2021E forecast.</div>
<div></div>
<div>• The YoY growth in 1Q21 earnings was mainly driven by an increased in revenue which was at Bt3.6bn (+71%YoY, +32% QoQ).</div>
<div></div>
<div>• In 1Q21, ORI has transferred activities (Non JV + JV projects) worth Bt4.4bn (+30%YoY, +12%QoQ),</div>
<div></div>
<div>• 1Q21 gross profit margin contracted to 39.2% mainly from higher contribution from housing projects (GPM of 24%).</div>
<div></div>
<div>• In 1Q21, the company also has presales of Bt7.7bn (+58%YoY, +11%QoQ), from  73 condominium projects and 27% housing projects.</div>
</div><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/741/original/ORI1.JPG?1621243866" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206741"></figure><div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data.</div></section><h2>Solid earnings growth outpacing peers</h2>
<h3>Presales on growing phase</h3>
<div>• ORI presales continues to grow MoM among 3rd wave COVID-19, better than market expectation. Moreover, we foresee presales momentum to speed up in 2H21 through aggressive launch of new 14 projects worth Bt12bn in 2H21 up from six projects launch worth Bt8bn in 1H21. In 1Q21, ORI’s presales accounted for 26% of the management target in 2021.</div>
<div></div>
<div>• As of 1Q21, ORI has secure 90% of our 2021 revenue forecast comprise of recognition revenue (Bt3.4bn) and backlog (Bt7.5bn). We maintain our 2021 revenue forecast (+30%YoY) and our 2021 net profit forecast (+18%YoY).</div>
</div><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/742/original/ORI2.JPG?1621244029" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206742"></figure><div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data</div></section><h3>Diversify income portfolio</h3>
<div>• ORI diversifies income portfolio to more recurring income. The new businesses comprise of hotel business, service business (PRIMO), healthcare related business, logistic center &amp; cold storage, and AMC business.</div>
<div></div>
<div>• The management target revenue contribution from new businesses at 10% of total revenue in the next three years.</div>
<div></div>
<div>• We believe that ORI will re-rate PER valuation following the progression of new businesses.</div>
<div></div>
<div>• We will update again after we receive more information in next analyst meeting.</div>
</div><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/743/original/ORI3.JPG?1621244105" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206743"></figure><div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data</div></section><h2>Quarterly presales and new projects launch</h2>
</div><p></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/744/original/ORI4.JPG?1621244304" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206744"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/745/original/ORI5.JPG?1621244321" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206745"></figure><div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data</div></section><h2>Projects launch and transfer in 2021</h2><p></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/746/original/ORI6.JPG?1621244479" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206746"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/747/original/ORI7.JPG?1621244492" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206747"></figure><div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data</div></section><h2>Revenue breakdown</h2><p>ORI and its subsidiaries have four core businesses. Condominiums account for 80% of ORI’s total sales. The company builds condominiums catering to a wide range of customer demand including its brands Kensington (mid-level), Notting Hill (mid-high level), Knightsbridge (upper mid-high level) and Park (high level).</p><p>Project management services contribute 7% of total sales. This segment is related to management services provided to other property projects.</p><p>The low-rise segment contributes 12% of total sales. (The company also develops low-rise properties under the Britania brand.)</p><p>Through a subsidiary, ORI also provides services related to the real estate business such as housekeeping services, handyman services and laundry services. This division contributes 1% of sales.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/749/original/ORI8.JPG?1621244848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206749"></figure><div class="content-caption">Sources: CGS Research, company data</div></section>

We maintain BUY rating and roll forward target price to 2022 of Bt10.3 (Previous TPpresales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of : Bt9.2) based on 7.5xPE’22E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector. Our target price is excluding new business.• ORI presales continues to grow MoM among 3rd wave COVID-19, better than market expectation. Moreover, we foresee presales momentum to speed up in 2H21 through aggressive launch of new 14 projects worth Bt12bn in 2H21 up from six projects launch worth Bt8bn in 1H21. 1Q21 ORI’s presales accounted for 26% of the management target in 2021.• ORI diversifies income portfolio to more recurring income. The management target revenue contribution from new businesses at 10% of total revenue in the next three years. We believe that ORI will re-rate PER valuation following the progression of new businesses.
 
We still like this stock on the backs of; (1) Secured backlog of Bt35bn to back 2021-23 earnings recovery; (2) Solid 6%-7% in 2021-22E.Result summary
• ORI’s 1Q21 net profit was Bt825m (+39%YoY, +29%QoQ), came out better than our expectation and accounted for 26% of 2021E forecast.

• The YoY growth in 1Q21 earnings was mainly driven by an increased in revenue which was at Bt3.6bn (+71%YoY, +32% QoQ).

• In 1Q21, ORI has transferred activities (Non JV + JV projects) worth Bt4.4bn (+30%YoY, +12%QoQ),

• 1Q21 gross profit margin contracted to 39.2% mainly from higher contribution from housing projects (GPM of 24%).

• In 1Q21, the company also has presales of Bt7.7bn (+58%YoY, +11%QoQ), from  73 condominium projects and 27% housing projects.

Sources: CGS Research, company data.Solid earnings growth outpacing peers
Presales on growing phase
• ORI presales continues to grow MoM among 3rd wave COVID-19, better than market expectation. Moreover, we foresee presales momentum to speed up in 2H21 through aggressive launch of new 14 projects worth Bt12bn in 2H21 up from six projects launch worth Bt8bn in 1H21. In 1Q21, ORI’s presales accounted for 26% of the management target in 2021.

• As of 1Q21, ORI has secure 90% of our 2021 revenue forecast comprise of recognition revenue (Bt3.4bn) and backlog (Bt7.5bn). We maintain our 2021 revenue forecast (+30%YoY) and our 2021 net profit forecast (+18%YoY).

Sources: CGS Research, company dataDiversify income portfolio
• ORI diversifies income portfolio to more recurring income. The new businesses comprise of hotel business, service business (PRIMO), healthcare related business, logistic center &amp; cold storage, and AMC business.

• The management target revenue contribution from new businesses at 10% of total revenue in the next three years.

• We believe that ORI will re-rate PER valuation following the progression of new businesses.

• We will update again after we receive more information in next analyst meeting.

Sources: CGS Research, company dataQuarterly presales and new projects launch
Sources: CGS Research, company dataProjects launch and transfer in 2021Sources: CGS Research, company dataRevenue breakdownORI and its subsidiaries have four core businesses. Condominiums account for 80% of ORI’s total sales. The company builds condominiums catering to a wide range of customer demand including its brands Kensington (mid-level), Notting Hill (mid-high level), Knightsbridge (upper mid-high level) and Park (high level).Project management services contribute 7% of total sales. This segment is related to management services provided to other property projects.The low-rise segment contributes 12% of total sales. (The company also develops low-rise properties under the Britania brand.)Through a subsidiary, ORI also provides services related to the real estate business such as housekeeping services, handyman services and laundry services. This division contributes 1% of sales.Sources: CGS Research, company data

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div>
<h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>
<p>In Indonesia<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-a-plethora-of-good-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News</a>,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> reports back a call with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-the-unsung-hero-of-syariah" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah?</a> , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/metrodata-electronic-mtdl-ij-a-rare-value-play-on-indonesia-s-digitalization" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> highlights why<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xl-axiata-excl-ij-enabling-and-converging-in-indonesia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ),</a> one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunpower-read-across-from-buyout-of-zheneng-jinjiang-fair-value-remains-at-1-sgd-63-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44133" rel="noopener">Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunpower-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18395:1" rel="noopener">Sunpower Group (SPWG SP)</a> post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. </p>
<p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-nforce-secure-new-player-in-thai-cyber-security" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security</a>, Thai Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wilmar-is-a-buy-after-yka-s-listing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44228" rel="noopener">Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> following the successful listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29184:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).</a></p>
<p>In Singapore<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sgx-sgx-sp-market-under-rates-its-growth-potential" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/victor-galliano" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Victor Galliano</a> discusses why he feels<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP)</a> is undervalued. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/business-dna-suksan-yasasin-of-chayo-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44242" rel="noopener">Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ori-expect-flat-3q20-earnings-but-strong-recovery-in-4q20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44163" rel="noopener">ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-property-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26762:1" rel="noopener">Origin Property (ORI TB)</a> ahead of the company's earnings. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/com7-upgrade-super-cycle-for-iphone-users" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44208" rel="noopener">COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. </p>
<h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-45-lobster-alliance-cp-all-goes-to-laos" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42866" rel="noopener">Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-kdcreit-included-flt-misses-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44178" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/msci-nov20-index-rebalance-preview-asean-em-edition" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. </p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kasikornbank-s-inaugural-at1-underweight-on-franchise-challenges-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44176" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation,</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank's (KBANK)</a> inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Indonesia Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh reports back a call with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
In Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah? , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. 
In Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization, Angus Mackintosh highlights why Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. 
In XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia, Angus Mackintosh revisits XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. 
In Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. 
In Thailand IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security, Thai Specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  
In Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,David Blennerhassett revisits Wilmar International (WIL SP) following the successful listing of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).
In Singapore SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential, Victor Galliano discusses why he feels SGX (SGX SP) is undervalued. 
In Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. 
In ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20, our friends at Country Group revisit Origin Property (ORI TB) ahead of the company's earnings. 
In COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users, Country Group revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. 
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.
In STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out, Brian Freitas comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  
In MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition, Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. 
Credit Insights
In Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation, credit specialist Hank Calenti, CFA comments on Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight Kasikornbank's (KBANK) inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

Thailand

Origin Property Public Company Limited is a real estate company. The Company provides condominium real estate development.

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Origin Property (ORI TB)

ORI: Solid Quarterly Presales Momentum

We maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt10.3 based on 7.5xPE’22E, the average of top 10 stocks in the Thai Real Estate sector. Our target...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 33

Our Thai portfolio has gained 85% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 30%. Since the last rebalancing, it has had 10 major outperformers: RCL,...

A. Stotz Investment Research

ORI: Solid Presales Momentum Outlook

We maintain BUY rating and roll forward target price to 2022 of Bt10.3 (Previous TPpresales momentum; (3) Attractive dividend yield of : Bt9.2)...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

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