Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Only about 1/3 of of the recently announced share buy back is done, the remainder will come from now through end of March 2024. </li>
<li>Earnings are far higher than the bank's forecast, and there should be a major revision in coming weeks. </li>
<li>Credit Saison collaboration and exiting BOJ negative rate policy, should provide a multitude of positives, for revenue growth.</li>
</ul>


Only about 1/3 of of the recently announced share buy back is done, the remainder will come from now through end of March 2024. 
Earnings are far higher than the bank's forecast, and there should be a major revision in coming weeks. 
Credit Saison collaboration and exiting BOJ negative rate policy, should provide a multitude of positives, for revenue growth.


Suruga Bank - Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey</li>
<li>The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending</li>
<li>With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta</li>
</ul>


Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey
The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending
With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta


Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-metropolitan-fund-investment-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:735:1" rel="noopener">Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.</li>
<li>The deal will be relatively small, in terms of ADV and dilution.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.
The deal will be relatively small, in terms of ADV and dilution.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Japan Metropolitan Fund Placement - Relatively Small Deal to Digest

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

MGM Resorts International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The US and Macau casino operator and its Japanese partner Orix Corporation may face tough odds to produce a viable ROI in a project that could reach over US$10b when done.</li>
<li>The Osaka casino resort will be the single most expensive IR ever built. Cost overruns historically are significant.</li>
<li>MGM shares could see a spike when officials announce winning bids by Spring or before. MGM is the only bidder left for Osaka.</li>
</ul>


The US and Macau casino operator and its Japanese partner Orix Corporation may face tough odds to produce a viable ROI in a project that could reach over US$10b when done.
The Osaka casino resort will be the single most expensive IR ever built. Cost overruns historically are significant.
MGM shares could see a spike when officials announce winning bids by Spring or before. MGM is the only bidder left for Osaka.


MGM's Osaka IR Aims at a US$9b Cost with Initial US$2.5b. It Might Be a Bridge Too Far

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and* Opacity Doesn’t Help: ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and* Opacity Doesn’t Help: ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.

Japan

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

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ORIX (IX US)

Suruga Bank - Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

Suruga Bank has done ~33% of its recent share buyback, the rest will come through March. The bank has earned far above its guidance, expect profit...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Japan's banks are seeing good loan volume and diffusion index on Tankan Survey and loan officer survey suggests there is more to come. Selling...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Metropolitan Fund Placement - Relatively Small Deal to Digest

Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.

Sumeet Singh

MGM's Osaka IR Aims at a US$9b Cost with Initial US$2.5b. It Might Be a Bridge Too Far

MGM/Orix partnership is likely to win Osaka IR license. Sunk cost may be much higher than anticipated, but news of approval next spring could spike...

Howard J Klein

ORIX Corp.– Enigma Wrapped In A Riddle

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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