Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200715E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it would delete <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> from a few of its indices and in the case of the Nikkei 225, would replace it with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a>. Changes will be made so that the calculation changes as of the opening price of 29 July, meaning the inclusion event takes place at the close of trading on 28 July. This is a new way of dealing with Securities which will likely be delisted, following the <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200615E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> of a slight change in policy made on 15 June, titled Changes to the Constituents Selection Rules of the Nikkei Stock Average which followed a <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/news/20200511E_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">consultation</a> starting in early May.This was not that much of a surprise. There were several "top picks" out there, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)</a>, the Japan Post names not in already, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>. The fact that there were so many top picks indicates three things at the outset.<ol>
<li>Not everyone is in the successful inclusion,</li>
<li>People are in names which were not successful inclusions and will want to exit,</li>
<li>The Nikkei has rules or habits which are vague enough to be considered unreliable. That creates for more surprise when inclusions come, but it also creates for unreliable index construction, which remains a problem. </li>
</ol>However, Japan Exchange Group saw a decent run on excess volume, perhaps partially helped by rising forward Street consensus EBIT. The trade is partially "done" already.The details of the inclusion and exclusion trades, flows, etc are, of course, below.

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc announced that it would delete Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) from a few of its indices and in the case of the Nikkei 225, would replace it with Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP). Changes will be made so that the calculation changes as of the opening price of 29 July, meaning the inclusion event takes place at the close of trading on 28 July. This is a new way of dealing with Securities which will likely be delisted, following the announcement of a slight change in policy made on 15 June, titled Changes to the Constituents Selection Rules of the Nikkei Stock Average which followed a consultation starting in early May.This was not that much of a surprise. There were several "top picks" out there, including Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP), the Japan Post names not in already, Orix Corp (8591 JP), Sbi Holdings (8473 JP) and Monex Group Inc (8698 JP). The fact that there were so many top picks indicates three things at the outset.
Not everyone is in the successful inclusion,
People are in names which were not successful inclusions and will want to exit,
The Nikkei has rules or habits which are vague enough to be considered unreliable. That creates for more surprise when inclusions come, but it also creates for unreliable index construction, which remains a problem. 
However, Japan Exchange Group saw a decent run on excess volume, perhaps partially helped by rising forward Street consensus EBIT. The trade is partially "done" already.The details of the inclusion and exclusion trades, flows, etc are, of course, below.

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

CY2020 has not been a good year for embattled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>.  FY3/2020 actual results were well short of guidance, with falling net interest and fee income, rising General Administrative Expenses (GAE) and an 11-fold increase in credit costs all contributing to the disappointing performance.  FY3/2021 management guidance bravely calls for a modest improvement over FY3/2020 actual results, which we think represents a very challenging target in the current operating environment.  To add fuel to the flames, management has slashed the forecast dividend from ¥155/share to ¥122/share, the effect of which has been to send the share price tumbling.  The stock price has fallen 38.7% in the last three months alone, and is by far the worst-performing of the major bank stocks to date.  There are ominous signs scattered throughout the balance-sheet and financial statements that FY3/2021 will be a challenging year for the bank, yet foreign investors still own in aggregate a significant proportion of Aozora Bank’s outstanding shares.
Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

CY2020 has not been a good year for embattled Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP).  FY3/2020 actual results were well short of guidance, with falling net interest and fee income, rising General Administrative Expenses (GAE) and an 11-fold increase in credit costs all contributing to the disappointing performance.  FY3/2021 management guidance bravely calls for a modest improvement over FY3/2020 actual results, which we think represents a very challenging target in the current operating environment.  To add fuel to the flames, management has slashed the forecast dividend from ¥155/share to ¥122/share, the effect of which has been to send the share price tumbling.  The stock price has fallen 38.7% in the last three months alone, and is by far the worst-performing of the major bank stocks to date.  There are ominous signs scattered throughout the balance-sheet and financial statements that FY3/2021 will be a challenging year for the bank, yet foreign investors still own in aggregate a significant proportion of Aozora Bank’s outstanding shares.
Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Aozora Bank  (8304 JP):  When Blue Skies Turn to Grey

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

ARRK was originally a design company making wooden objects and models. Fast-forward half a century later to the late 90s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arrk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4929:1" rel="noopener">Arrk Corp (7873 JP)</a> was a well-known model-maker for the electronics and auto industry and as that business moved into the software space so did ARRK. It listed in 1996, and in the early noughties expanded rapidly in CAD design. The stock price rose 8-fold from 2000 to 2005 and the share price peaked in February 2006 just as the Livedoor Marketing scandal started ripping a hole in small caps. Since then, the shares have fallen 98%.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-chemicals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1703:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP)</a> previously conducted a <a href="https://jp.mitsuichemicals.com/en/release/2017/171129.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tender offer</a> acquiring a majority stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arrk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4929:1" rel="noopener">Arrk Corp (7873 JP)</a> in January 2018. ARRK operates as a business group that provides development support for new products in the industrial goods sector and Mitsui Chemicals acquired this company as part of a plan for business growth in their "Mobility domain" which is a business segment that focuses on automotive materials (such as performance resin). On 14th May 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-chemicals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1703:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP)</a><a href="https://jp.mitsuichemicals.com/sites/default/files/media/document/2020/kessan_200514_2e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a merger deal to buy out minorities in ARRK. The share exchange ratio will be 0.0511 Mitsui Chem Share for 1 Arrk Corp Share. The effective date of the share exchange is scheduled to be 1st August 2020. The shares of Mitsui Chem and ARRK last closed at ¥1,935 and ¥87. These prices currently translate to a gross spread of 13.7% with less than 3 months to completion. The spread will tighten immediately and trade tight until deal completion. As usual, there is more below the fold.

ARRK was originally a design company making wooden objects and models. Fast-forward half a century later to the late 90s and Arrk Corp (7873 JP) was a well-known model-maker for the electronics and auto industry and as that business moved into the software space so did ARRK. It listed in 1996, and in the early noughties expanded rapidly in CAD design. The stock price rose 8-fold from 2000 to 2005 and the share price peaked in February 2006 just as the Livedoor Marketing scandal started ripping a hole in small caps. Since then, the shares have fallen 98%.Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP) previously conducted a tender offer acquiring a majority stake in Arrk Corp (7873 JP) in January 2018. ARRK operates as a business group that provides development support for new products in the industrial goods sector and Mitsui Chemicals acquired this company as part of a plan for business growth in their "Mobility domain" which is a business segment that focuses on automotive materials (such as performance resin). On 14th May 2020, Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JP)announced a merger deal to buy out minorities in ARRK. The share exchange ratio will be 0.0511 Mitsui Chem Share for 1 Arrk Corp Share. The effective date of the share exchange is scheduled to be 1st August 2020. The shares of Mitsui Chem and ARRK last closed at ¥1,935 and ¥87. These prices currently translate to a gross spread of 13.7% with less than 3 months to completion. The spread will tighten immediately and trade tight until deal completion. As usual, there is more below the fold.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The Japan financial conglomerate saw its returns down dramatically during the last crisis, even if not in loss as happened with many banks. This can surprise, where most are focused on banks. At the same time, profit decimation may not be considered by most, where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> has significant levels of capital. This though does not stop impairments and a step down in profit. The market reaction to its worsened profit in the last crisis was astounding, unlike what’s transpired thus far.  A business that includes aircraft and ship leasing, insurance and real estate and banking, is already fraught with risk in the current environment – all the more so as Japan shuts down.

The Japan financial conglomerate saw its returns down dramatically during the last crisis, even if not in loss as happened with many banks. This can surprise, where most are focused on banks. At the same time, profit decimation may not be considered by most, where Orix Corp (8591 JP) has significant levels of capital. This though does not stop impairments and a step down in profit. The market reaction to its worsened profit in the last crisis was astounding, unlike what’s transpired thus far.  A business that includes aircraft and ship leasing, insurance and real estate and banking, is already fraught with risk in the current environment – all the more so as Japan shuts down.

Orix  - Lending, Insurance, Aircraft & Ship Leasing, No Shortage Of Risks

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THREE-YEAR LOW - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>LEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-<ul>
<li>Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</li>
<li>The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</li>
<li>The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.</li>
<li>
All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.
<hr>
• SECTOR SCORES •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

Japan

ORIX Corporation provides comprehensive financial services throughout the world. The Company's business lines include leasing, real estate loans, life insurance, banking, and consumer finance.  The Company also operates Environment related business and Private equity investment business. ORIX has a professional baseball team, the ORIX Buffalos.

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Orix Corp (8591 JP)

Nikkei 225 - JPX IN, Sony Financial OUT

Today after the close the Nikkei Inc announced that it would delete Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) from a few of its indices and in the case of...

Travis Lundy

Aozora Bank (8304 JP): When Blue Skies Turn to Grey

CY2020 has not been a good year for embattled Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). FY3/2020 actual results were well short of guidance, with falling net...

J. Brian Waterhouse

ARRK-Mitsui Chem Merger: Done Deal

ARRK was originally a design company making wooden objects and models. Fast-forward half a century later to the late 90s and Arrk Corp (7873 JP)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Orix - Lending, Insurance, Aircraft & Ship Leasing, No Shortage Of Risks

The Japan financial conglomerate saw its returns down dramatically during the last crisis, even if not in loss as happened with many banks. This...

Daniel Tabbush

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

THREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our...

Campbell Gunn

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