Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<div><p>On average, J-REITs have historically outperformed the TSEREIT Index in the wake of follow-on equity offerings, with win rates exceeding 80%.</p></div><div><p>While the offerings are mostly of interest to primary market investors, we also see such offerings as catalysts for strong secondary market performance making these events worth tracking for secondary market investors too. We have previously discussed the historical pre- and post-offering performance of JREITs in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-reit-offering-primer-get-ready-for-offering-season-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46416" rel="noopener">J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021</a>. In this insight, we evaluate the attractiveness of the latest candidate to launch such a follow-on equity offering - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/activia-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9498:1" rel="noopener">Activia Properties (3279 JP)</a> ("API")- with greater emphasis on the potential for strong post-offering secondary market performance. </p></div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/activia-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9498:1" rel="noopener">Activia Properties (3279 JP)</a> announced a follow-on equity offering today after market-close to fund part of their recent property acquisition. The primary offer quantity is 49,030 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 2,500 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥23bn (~US$210mn). </p><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p>

On average, J-REITs have historically outperformed the TSEREIT Index in the wake of follow-on equity offerings, with win rates exceeding 80%.While the offerings are mostly of interest to primary market investors, we also see such offerings as catalysts for strong secondary market performance making these events worth tracking for secondary market investors too. We have previously discussed the historical pre- and post-offering performance of JREITs in J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021. In this insight, we evaluate the attractiveness of the latest candidate to launch such a follow-on equity offering - Activia Properties (3279 JP) ("API")- with greater emphasis on the potential for strong post-offering secondary market performance. Activia Properties (3279 JP) announced a follow-on equity offering today after market-close to fund part of their recent property acquisition. The primary offer quantity is 49,030 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 2,500 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥23bn (~US$210mn). More below the fold. 

Activia Properties (3279 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs TSEREIT Index

Daiwa House Reit Investment / Event-Driven

<p>J-REITs have historically outperformed the TSEREIT Index on average in the wake of follow-on equity offerings, with win rates exceeding 80%.</p><p>While the offerings are mostly of interest to primary market investors, we also see such offerings as catalysts for strong secondary market performance making these events worth tracking for secondary market investors too. We have previously discussed the historical pre- and post-offering performance of JREITs in <em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-reit-offering-primer-get-ready-for-offering-season-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46416" rel="noopener">J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021</a></em>. In this insight, we evaluate the attractiveness of the latest candidate to launch such a follow-on equity offerings - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiwa-house-reit-investment-cb077099-8006-45e4-83cf-6ac7f19cd384" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11283:1" rel="noopener">Daiwa House Reit Investment (8984 JP)</a><strong>("DHR")</strong> - with greater emphasis on the potential for strong post-offering secondary market performance. </p><p>DHR announced a <a href="https://www.daiwahouse-reit.co.jp/file/en-ir_news-3926cc869b501ab42a4918d64facbc098f8c6b97.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow-on equity offering</a> after the close on 18th August 2021 to fund part of their recent property acquisition. The primary offer quantity is 115,000 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 9,000 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥37.7bn (~US$343mn) which is slightly larger than some of the recent offerings by other JREITs. </p><p>The Offer Price will be determined between 25th August 2021 and 27th August 2021 (typically it has been the first day of this window for most JREIT offerings) and the two business days following the Offer Price Determination Day ("Pricing Date") will be the Application Date. </p><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p>

J-REITs have historically outperformed the TSEREIT Index on average in the wake of follow-on equity offerings, with win rates exceeding 80%.While the offerings are mostly of interest to primary market investors, we also see such offerings as catalysts for strong secondary market performance making these events worth tracking for secondary market investors too. We have previously discussed the historical pre- and post-offering performance of JREITs in J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021. In this insight, we evaluate the attractiveness of the latest candidate to launch such a follow-on equity offerings - Daiwa House Reit Investment (8984 JP)("DHR") - with greater emphasis on the potential for strong post-offering secondary market performance. DHR announced a follow-on equity offering after the close on 18th August 2021 to fund part of their recent property acquisition. The primary offer quantity is 115,000 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 9,000 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥37.7bn (~US$343mn) which is slightly larger than some of the recent offerings by other JREITs. The Offer Price will be determined between 25th August 2021 and 27th August 2021 (typically it has been the first day of this window for most JREIT offerings) and the two business days following the Offer Price Determination Day ("Pricing Date") will be the Application Date. More below the fold. 

Daiwa House REIT Investment (8984 JP): Expect A Correction Before Pricing Date

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinxin-fertility-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28003:1" rel="noopener">Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)</a>while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-real-estate-master-fu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22930:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-jreit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:314:1" rel="noopener">Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmg-mori-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11125:1" rel="noopener">Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.</p></div><div>
<p>In Korea, there was large short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearl-abyss-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24391:1" rel="noopener">Pearl Abyss (263750 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-chemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8757:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p>
<p>Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.</p>
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) and Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and BYD (1211 HK). Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP), freee (4478 JP) and Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP) while shorts decreased on Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP) and Pharma Foods International (2929 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.
In Korea, there was large short covering in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Pearl Abyss (263750 KS), Lotte Chemical (011170 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). 
Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.


Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

<p>In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.</p>
<p>Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.</p>
<p>From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. </p>
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Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)</div>
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.</section>

In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.
Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.
From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. 









Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>* Poor Results To Continue:</em></strong> Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and</p><p><strong><em>* Opacity Doesn’t Help:</em></strong> ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.</p>

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and* Opacity Doesn’t Help: ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.

Japan

ORIX JREIT Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which invests in securitized real estate products.  The Company directly invests in real estate properties such as offices, rental housings, and hotels.

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Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)

Activia Properties (3279 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs TSEREIT Index

Large cap diversified JREIT Activia Properties has launched a JPY23bn (US$210mn) follow-on equity offering which could trigger outperformance...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Daiwa House REIT Investment (8984 JP): Expect A Correction Before Pricing Date

Large cap diversified JREIT Daiwa House REIT launched an equity offering to partially fund their recent acquisition of properties. The offering...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

JREIT Follow-On Offerings - A Primer: January and February are the busiest times of the year for a variety of reasons and there are multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ORIX Corp.– Enigma Wrapped In A Riddle

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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