Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>Currently, we see three expected changes. However, since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we see three expected changes. However, since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 29th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu, SCC, PTT Global Chemical.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Nov 29th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu, SCC, PTT Global Chemical.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 29th): Bumrungrad, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX anticipates that the Digital Wallet (DW) scheme, intended to distribute Bt10k in cash to 50mn individuals, which has been postponed since the beginning of 2024, will commence in 4Q24.</li><li>This timing aligns with the increased clarity surrounding the funding sources.</li><li>The funding structure has transitioned from the previously discussed Bt500bn Loan Bill, which raised legal concerns, to the expenditures budget for 2024-25 and the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC). </li></ul>

KTX anticipates that the Digital Wallet (DW) scheme, intended to distribute Bt10k in cash to 50mn individuals, which has been postponed since the beginning of 2024, will commence in 4Q24.This timing aligns with the increased clarity surrounding the funding sources.The funding structure has transitioned from the previously discussed Bt500bn Loan Bill, which raised legal concerns, to the expenditures budget for 2024-25 and the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC). 

Special Report: Digital Wallet to Start in 4Q24 - APRIL 11, 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be large passive flows for stocks in Malaysia and Thailand in the next few weeks. Impact is especially high where there could be passive outflows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8553:1" rel="noopener">YTL Corp (YTL MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ytl-power-international-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1239:1" rel="noopener">YTL Power International (YTLP MK)</a> are likely to have passive inflows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dialog-group-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3649:1" rel="noopener">Dialog Group (DLG MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osotspa-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27004:1" rel="noopener">Osotspa Public Company Limited (OSP TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banpu-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15363:1" rel="noopener">Banpu Public (BANPU TB)</a> could have outflows.</li>
</ul>


There could be large passive flows for stocks in Malaysia and Thailand in the next few weeks. Impact is especially high where there could be passive outflows.

YTL Corp (YTL MK) and YTL Power International (YTLP MK) are likely to have passive inflows.

Dialog Group (DLG MK), Berli Jucker (BJC TB), Osotspa Public Company Limited (OSP TB) and Banpu Public (BANPU TB) could have outflows.


Southeast Asia EM: Potential Passive Flows in February

Thailand

Osotspa Public Company Limited produces and distributes non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers energy drinks and candies. Osotspa also provides personal and health care products, including shampoos, deodorant, soaps, herbal medicines, and creams. Osotspa serves customers in Thailand.

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Osotspa Public Company Limited (OSP TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible

There are 3 expected ADDs/DELs and all names have more than 1x ADV excess volume expected from the index Inclusion/Exclusion. Separately, the Gulf...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Nov 29th): Bumrungrad, Energy Absolute, Delta Electronics, Banpu

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Bumrungrad Hospital, Energy Absolute, Delta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Special Report: Digital Wallet to Start in 4Q24 - APRIL 11, 2024

KTX anticipates that the Digital Wallet (DW) scheme, intended to distribute Bt10k in cash to 50mn individuals, which has been postponed since the...

Krungthai XSpring

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Southeast Asia EM: Potential Passive Flows in February

Changes in market cap and free float market cap will result in flows from global passive trackers for some Malaysia and Thailand stocks in Feb. The...

Brian Freitas

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