Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.</li><li>The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.</li><li>The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.</li></ul>

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OCBC has seen its mkt cap RISE by ~4% YTD. This is stark contrast to the ~6.5% lower mkt cap at DBS and around 10% lower mkt cap at UOB.</li>
<li>Net interest income had been strong, and this likely slows, a lot. Other areas are far from strong. Credit costs are up 103% YoY at 9M23.</li>
<li>Profit from insurance is down 12% YoY and down 16% QoQ, in 3Q23 (Great Eastern). Profit from associates is -1% YoY in the quarter and only +1% YoY</li>
</ul>


OCBC has seen its mkt cap RISE by ~4% YTD. This is stark contrast to the ~6.5% lower mkt cap at DBS and around 10% lower mkt cap at UOB.
Net interest income had been strong, and this likely slows, a lot. Other areas are far from strong. Credit costs are up 103% YoY at 9M23.
Profit from insurance is down 12% YoY and down 16% QoQ, in 3Q23 (Great Eastern). Profit from associates is -1% YoY in the quarter and only +1% YoY


OCBC - Market Capitalization Rising, Unlike Peers | Insurance Is Lack Luster | Credit Costs Seem Low

<ul>
<li>In past 2 quarters <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. </li>
<li>It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. </li>
</ul>


In past 2 quarters OCBC (OCBC SP) saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. 
It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like Standard Chartered (STAN LN) and HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN). 

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. 


OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.


GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

OCBC (OCBC SP)

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay...

Criat

OCBC - Market Capitalization Rising, Unlike Peers | Insurance Is Lack Luster | Credit Costs Seem Low

OCBC may see its net interest income slow dramatically, exposing the worsening other line items, where credit costs can especially surprise,...

Daniel Tabbush

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay...

Criat

OCBC - Market Capitalization Rising, Unlike Peers | Insurance Is Lack Luster | Credit Costs Seem Low

OCBC may see its net interest income slow dramatically, exposing the worsening other line items, where credit costs can especially surprise,...

Daniel Tabbush

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released...

Sumeet Singh

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh