Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.</li><li>The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.</li><li>We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.</li></ul>

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector.The Reverse Repo facility has been squashed since May while the bank reserves have remained relatively stable.We are not at all surprised by the banks’ continued caution throughout the summer, and we expect this risk-averse attitude to persist in the coming quarters.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-ozk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28708:1" rel="noopener">Bank OZK (OZK US)</a> has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24</li>
<li>Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times</li>
<li>The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?</li>
</ul>



Bank OZK (OZK US) has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24
Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times
The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?


Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

<p>The story for <strong>US banks</strong> is all about re-opening the economy, improved credit costs and top line. New macro data for August suggests that the economy continues to improve. With the Fed’s new higher inflation target, one must expect lower rates for longer, which can mean reasonably higher loan demand. If and where the yield curve maintains steepness or steepens further, banks should be able to rebuild net interest income with limited credit risk. Alongside continued improvement in the virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now suggests that testing should not be done by all and it gives new data that suggests the risks of getting sick and dying are far less dire than most expected, or were told, in March and April. These last two points are positive, as they can have an impact on keeping the economy open and support improved confidence in spending, investment.</p>

The story for US banks is all about re-opening the economy, improved credit costs and top line. New macro data for August suggests that the economy continues to improve. With the Fed’s new higher inflation target, one must expect lower rates for longer, which can mean reasonably higher loan demand. If and where the yield curve maintains steepness or steepens further, banks should be able to rebuild net interest income with limited credit risk. Alongside continued improvement in the virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) now suggests that testing should not be done by all and it gives new data that suggests the risks of getting sick and dying are far less dire than most expected, or were told, in March and April. These last two points are positive, as they can have an impact on keeping the economy open and support improved confidence in spending, investment.

United States

Pacific Premier Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for Pacific Premier Bank. The Bank is a savings bank whose primary business includes branch banking, and income property and construction lending.  Pacific Premier operates branches in Orange and San Bernadino counties, both located in Southern California.

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Pacific Premier Bancorp (PPBI US)

Macro Nugget: US Banks

Recently the FED released its H4 recently which bears some interesting insights into the state of the US banking sector. The Reverse Repo facility...

Steno Research

Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans are risky in the US normally and especially now. Bank OZK is most exposed, with dramatic worsening of credit...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – New Data Supportive

New data in US shows a continued improvement in the economy and new data from the CDC should be well received by law-makers, consumers and the...

Daniel Tabbush

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