Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the June 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we expect one regular change for ASX 50 and four regular changes for ASX 200 during the rebalance. Separately, there could be a couple of M&amp;A-related index changes too.</li>
<li>The index review results will be confirmed in early-June 2026.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the June 2026 index rebal event.
Currently, we expect one regular change for ASX 50 and four regular changes for ASX 200 during the rebalance. Separately, there could be a couple of M&amp;A-related index changes too.
The index review results will be confirmed in early-June 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun26: Final Expectations; 14 Changes in June Including M&A-Related Changes

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 15th): Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW:  We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27448" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27448:1">Uranium (UXA COMDTY)</a> prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27155" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27155:1">Cameco Corp (CCJ US)</a> and may also support junior miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27449" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27449:1">Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN)</a> was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions:

INVESTMENT VIEW:   We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments aimed at reducing and managing industry oversupply.  
This should bode well for industry majors like Cameco Corp (CCJ US) and may also support junior miners like Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) for investors with a higher risk/reward profile. 
The CEO of Toronto listed Azarga Uranium (AZZ CN) was in Singapore last week and below is a summary of our conclusions: 

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 8th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Telstra, National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers, Capricorn Metals.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 8th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD45.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Telstra, National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers, Capricorn Metals.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 8th): BHP, Telstra, National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers

Australia

Paladin Energy Ltd operates as a mining company. The Company explores and mines uranium. Paladin Energy serves customers worldwide.

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Paladin Energy (PDN AU)

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 15th): Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments...

Charles Spencer

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 8th): BHP, Telstra, National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Telstra, National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun26: Final Expectations; 14 Changes in June Including M&A-Related Changes

We expect a total of 14 index changes in June 2026 including M&A-related index changes. Most of the index changes have decent impact and flow size.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 15th): Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman, Lottery

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, Rio Tinto, 4Dmedical, Goodman,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Azarga Uranium Meeting Highlights Industry at Inflection

INVESTMENT VIEW: We believe Uranium (UXA COMDTY) prices have the potential to rally further following a number of recent supply-side adjustments...

Charles Spencer

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 8th): BHP, Telstra, National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Telstra, National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM